US won’t punish South Africa, says expert

If it turns out that SA had violated its neutral status by supplying ammunition to Russia, the United States is unlikely to punish the country, says an expert.

Political analyst Dr Jan Venter from North West University said Washington would likely use the carrot-and-stick approach to bring South Africa back on track.

SA’s ill-advised foreign policy

He added that SA’s ill-advised foreign policy was the reason the country tended to go back and forth in international relations.

“If SA is going to continue on this bifurcated road where, on one hand, it wants to appease the West and, on the other, wants to help Russia, the stress in the situation would build up.

But I don’t think there will be a break in relations between South Africa and Western countries.

“I rather think and hope this is the way America will try and bring South Africa back on the road. America will come with carrots, rather than sticks, to get South Africa back on the main Western-aligned road,” he said.

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‘Sufficient’ evidence to show SA supplied arms

He believed SA did indeed supply ammunition to Russia in the Ukrainian war and in so doing, violated its neutral status.

As a firm ally of Ukraine, the US was using its spy network all over the world to look out for ships with Russian assets.

They were able to pick up that a Russian ship, which docked at Simon’s Town near Cape Town, was loaded with ammunition.

There was sufficient evidence that SA had uploaded the ship with ammunition and most likely other material.

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The result was the current stress regarding the future of SA’s relations with the US. Venter said while SA had greater trade weight with the European Union and the US, it was ideologically more inclined to align itself with Russia and China. It was likely to further strengthen its ties with Russia.

“This was as a result of South Africa’s misguided foreign policy.” He added that although SA would like an African-aligned foreign policy, the country’s society was Westernised.

South Africans used Western technology in the form of iPads and celphones, listened to Western music and used Western products.

“I think America will get us out of the grip of Russia with the combination of carrots and sticks. I hope the sticks will stay away because our economy cannot handle sanctions.”

He suggested that SA should get its foreign policy in a straight line. If the country signed a declaration of intent, it must adhere to this declaration.

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But SA’s foreign policy was governed by party factions where one side would like the country to break up with the West and strengthen relations with Russia and China.

This was despite the trade balance, favouring relations with the West as SA depended more on exports and imports from there.

There is a high level of stress in the dangerous road that the government took. While South Africa would follow other Brics nations towards a new economic dispensation, including a single currency for the developing world, the West would not be comfortable with that.

“We hope they will continue to engage with us for South Africa needs to stay within the broad picture of the Western environment because China and Russia have become the new imperialist states,” said Venter.

“They are using imperialist methods and are not exactly what the ANC professes to be good allies,” he said.