The ANC's top leaders are already eyeing key positions in the party before Cyril Ramaphosa's term comes to an end.
Despite the ANC’s denial that the National General Council (NGC) is not the place to discuss succession, a political analyst believes there are enough indicators to suggest that the question of who will replace Cyril Ramaphosa as party president is one of the pressing issues at this meeting.
ANC leaders have gathered at the Birchwood Hotel on the East Rand, where they will review the party’s work over the past term.
There have been reports about the meeting being used to recall Ramaphosa, but the party’s leaders have been at pains to silence party members from talking about the party’s succession conflicts.
On Monday, the party’s chairperson, Gwede Mantashe, warned those who want to sneak the succession debate into the conference to desist from doing so.
“Today we are having the NGC. What we are expecting from all of you is maximum contribution to the discussion, say what you want to say here today, but we are going to ensure that there is discipline in expressing our views.
“Now in the run-up to this NGC, there are many things that have happened, there are many things that were said about the NGC, I can assure you [that] anything that is not prescribed by the constitution of the ANC or the NGC is not going to happen,” he said.
Succession topic
Mantashe is among several top leaders who have denounced talking about Ramaphosa’s successor before 2027, when his term as ANC president comes to an end.
A faction that wants Ramaphosa gone has blamed him for the party’s declining support and for their loss at last year’s general elections.
Political analysis
But political analyst Theo Neethling said, despite what the ANC’s leaders are saying, the gloves are off in the background, and some leaders are positioning themselves to take over the ANC.
“Even with ongoing public rejections from high-ranking ANC officials, the party is clearly transitioning into a phase of heightened internal conflict.
“Official statements depict the NGC as simply a review platform, yet the reality on the ground suggests otherwise.
“What the ANC leaders refer to as ‘renewal’ frequently seems, in reality, to be a contest for dominance over crucial structures prior to the 2027 elective conference,” said Neethling.
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Top leaders’ interference in regional politics
His comments come after reports that the top seven leaders of the ANC have been influencing the outcomes of the regional elective conferences, which have been taking place.
A case in point is the latest conference in Johannesburg, where Dada Morero was removed as chairperson of the region.
The MNMC of Finance, Loyiso Masuku, won this conference alongside the re-elected regional secretary, Sasabona Manganye. The faction that won this conference is believed to be linked to the deputy president of the ANC, Paul Mashatile, and the party’s first deputy secretary-general, Nomvula Mokonyane.
Morero has been closely associated with President Cyril Ramaphosa and Fikile Mbalula.
“Changes in regional power—especially in Johannesburg—are exposing more profound factional realignments, with local conflicts increasingly viewed as indicators of national succession trends,” said Neethling.
“Divisions among provincial and regional branches, conflicts regarding internal election procedures, and indications of patronage-driven tactics have rendered unity messages insincere.
“Although the party’s highest leadership asserts that no national leadership contest is currently occurring, factional manoeuvres have undeniably intensified, and those within the party acknowledge the tactical positioning transpiring out of sight.
“Essentially, the ANC is undergoing a leadership battle—albeit not a transparent one. It is developing through discreet actions, regional power dynamics, and the gradual strengthening of support networks rather than overt announcements,” he said.
Neethling said that as electoral backing diminishes and internal unity strains, the party faces a crucial juncture: whether it can steer these conflicts toward true rejuvenation, or whether the ongoing leadership contest will further undermine its national profile.
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