Will Ramaphosa fall into the same trap as Zelensky? — Experts weigh in

Experts have weighed in on how President Cyril Ramaphosa should conduct himself when he meets United States (US) President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C, on Wednesday.

In this critical meeting, Ramaphosa and his delegation will attempt to reset South Africa’s relationship with the US.

The South African delegation will also have to convince Trump that the race-based laws passed since 1994 are essential to levelling the playing field between the country’s different races.

Will negotiating a trade deal help?

Professor Anthoni van Nieuwkerk from the Thabo Mbeki School of Public and International Affairs said Ramaphosa will have to negotiate a trade deal that Trump will not refuse.

Van Nieuwkerk believes that the negotiation team should avoid spending too much time trying to prove that there is no white genocide in South Africa.

“To reset our relationship, we must put a trade deal on the table that is attractive to the Trump administration, that is where the negotiations will take place behind the scenes.

“By the time the two presidents meet in the White House, the deal will already be made, and what remains is the symbolism and the pleasantries,” he said.

Ramaphosa will survive the Zelensky trap

Van Nieuwkerk said he believed that Ramaphosa would not fall into the same trap as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Zelensky was embarrassed on live TV during engagements with Trump and his deputy, JD Vance, in what was described as a boxing match between heads of state.

“Zelensky went there to make a deal around minerals in Ukraine they made the deal behind the scenes, The officials worked on the deal in the White House there was going to be a photo opportunity then they started to argue and Zelensky started to be aggressive, that is a good lesson for us,” he said.

What does South Africa have to offer?

Van Nieuwkerk said South Africa is likely to negotiate deals around the country’s minerals and key industries,

“There are deals being made regarding access to scarce minerals, in particular the platinum group; we have 80% of the world’s reserves in platinum. We also have gold and diamonds, and we have oil and gas, and we have a functional economy that can produce parts for vehicles and heavy machinery.

“We have 600 American companies in South Africa, and we offer them a gateway to the rest of Southern Africa and the region. The deal is not only what South Africa can offer, but what the continent can offer through the African Continental Free Trade Area (ACFTA) agreement. The deal ultimately must be between the US and Africa, and Cyril Ramaphosa must be a facilitator of that bigger deal,” he said.

Ramaphosa’s negotiation skills

Van Nieuwkerk said he believed that Ramaphosa has enough negotiating experience to pull such a deal off.

“I am confident that if he is put on the spot by President Trump, he will be diplomatic and he will be cool. He will hold his views together, and he will respond as a professional,” he said.

The Mandela name will not work!

Van Nieuwkerk cautioned the negotiation team not to use the Mandela legacy to win the White House’s favour.

“To us, the Mandela name as a tactic to negotiate or bargain, I do not think it will really work. I think President Ramaphosa has his own charisma and style, and when it comes to negotiations, he matches any other African politician,” he said.

Trump is using “soft power” against South Africa

Meanwhile, Ntsikelelo Breakfast, a political analyst from the Nelson Mandela University (NMU) said Trump is well aware there is no white genocide in South Africa.

He said South Africa had been granted an audience with Trump to begin negotiations. He described this move as using “soft power”.

“Trump is playing like a fool; he knows there is no white genocide in South Africa. Remember that he is indebted to Elon Musk, who is not neutral in this situation because he wants to have a footprint in South Africa. Musk does not want to comply with the race-inspired policies, in particular, B-BBEE [Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment,” he said.

He said he expects Trump to go into these critical negotiations hoping for a win-win situation for both countries.

Will South Africa change its position on Israel?

However, he said the danger of this could be that South Africa may be indirectly asked to change its position on Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

South Africa had rallied support around the world for Palestine and challenged Tel Aviv for what they described as a genocide of the Arab population in Gaza.

“I do not think that he (Trump)  is going to back off on the issue of the ICJ, and I think America has a firm position with regard to its support for Israel. So, South Africa may have to compromise on that score,” he said.

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Breakfast said South Africa will have to make a wise deal so that it does not lose out on trade arrangements between South Africa and the US, such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa).

“We want to continue sending our products and services to the US market, and if we are kicked out of Agoa, that will have national consequences, and it will hit hard on ordinary people,” he said.

Pretoria will not compromise on certain domestic policies

However, Breakfast said he believed that Pretoria would not compromise on race-based laws meant to equalise the scales between different ethnic groups in the country.

“The issue of land expropriation is one that I think South Africa will not back down on, the issue of BEE [Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment ], I do not think the country will back down on.

“We just might be forced not directly but indirectly on the issue of the ICJ,” he said.

Afrikaners who left should be allowed to stay in the US

On the other hand, AfriForum CEO Kallie Kriel told The Citizen that he believed that the negotiations would fail if Pretoria downplays the racial tension in the country over race-based laws.

“They cannot fool the US. We believe that how trade relations could be reset is identifying what the issues are. They must discuss issues about the Expropriation Act and farm murders. If they do not speak about the problems and come up with a win-win solution, then this mission will fail,” he said.

Kriel said he believes that even if Ramaphosa and his team manage to reset the relationship between Washington and Pretoria, the 49 alleged refugees who have been resettled in the US should not be brought back to South Africa.

“They went there through a legal process. I do not think they should be sent back,” he said.

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