Olympic uncertainty makes the 2021 Games potentially the most exciting

A colleague, who works for another newspaper, has a simple formula which some members of the media have come to use in an attempt to predict South African medal hopes at the Olympic Games.

This year, however, the calculation doesn’t work nearly as well because we don’t really know where to start.

As eager as Sascoc often seem to set a medal target for the quadrennial showpiece, even the umbrella body distanced itself this week from making early predictions.

With some athletes still attempting to qualify in various codes, Sascoc president Barry Hendricks said at this week’s Mr Price kit sponsorship announcement that they would probably wait until the SA team was confirmed before sharing the number of medals they wanted.

Some athletes should be among the podium favourites almost by right, including the likes of swimmers Chad le Clos and Tatjana Schoenmaker, sprinter Akani Simbine, triathlete Henri Schoeman, surfer Jordy Smith and the Sevens rugby team, while others are on the fringe and should also be in with a shout.

With domestic sport still largely on hold in Olympic codes, however, it’s very difficult to know who is in form after a year of isolation.

But the international campaigns in various sports will offer a chance to see what shape our medal contenders are in, for those who are able to get there, and competitions in Europe will be a crucial part of the national team’s preparation over the next few months.

Under usual circumstances, according to David Isaacson’s formula, you count all the country’s realistic medal contenders, and you cut the total in half to get a prediction.

That’s it. And if you know how many legitimate contenders we have, it’s an equation which works remarkably well.

On this occasion, however, we’re missing too many variables and any medal prediction at this stage would be little more than a shot in the dark.

If the Tokyo Games take place, which is still by no means a guarantee, the SA team is unlikely to rake in a record number of medals during a period which has created unique challenges across the board.

And while we will no doubt have some contenders in the mix, it’s going to be the most unpredictable Olympics in decades.

As frustrating as that may be for Sascoc and the media in advance, however, maybe that air of uncertainty will make it even more exciting if the Games go ahead as planned.

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