Gauteng could be a battleground for Ramaphosa ahead of the conference

The key ANC province of Gauteng could become a crucial battleground for President Cyril Ramaphosa as he seeks re-election as head of the party and his rivals prepare to take the fight to him.

There is uncertainty and volatility in the province following the election this week of Mzwandile Masina as Ekurhuleni regional chair for a third term.

The final result of that election is due to be confirmed on Wednesday after “quarantined” votes are assessed.

Masina is one of those associated with the ANC’s radical economic transformation (RET) faction loyal to former president Jacob Zuma.

The leadership uncertainty brought about by Premier David Makhura’s likely unavailability for re-election has left the province with no direction in national politics, or with a clear choice for the ANC presidential candidate.

The province is not forthright about its support for Ramaphosa. With no clear position on Ramaphosa yet and ANC acting secretary-general Paul Mashatile rumoured to be preparing to abandon him, Gauteng could be a battleground for the president.

Political analyst Prof Mcebisi Ndletyana said Gauteng’s approach was sound and that is what all structures should do.

“It’s a good thing, there is a need to reflect and consider everybody. You can’t always go for someone who thinks he is destined and anointed for leadership,” Ndletyana said.

Since 1994, Gauteng has followed its own leadership path.

Unlike other provinces, Gauteng has tended to take longer to decide who to choose and rally behind.

The political dynamics in the province’s ANC structure also contribute to it opting for neutrality. But ever since Makhura was elected as the party’s provincial chair and premier, he has managed to pull the province behind Ramaphosa.

ALSO READ: Mashatile ‘may’ dump Ramaphosa’s camp leading to conference – expert

Makhura has indicated he may not be available for re-election at the next provincial conference.

The main contenders to replace him are his current deputy, Panyaza Lesufi, and provincial executive committee member Lebogang Maile, who are both unclear where they stand on Ramaphosa.

Neither Lesufi nor Maile have expressed interest in siding with the other potential presidential candidates, Zweli Mkhize or Lindiwe Sisulu. But one thing is sure, RET is out of the question for both of them.

Ndletyana attributes Gauteng’s neutral stance to the open-mindedness of its leadership.

“Gauteng generally is diverse in terms of thinking on the ANC leadership question. They are open-minded and for a long time there hasn’t been uniformity behind a particular leader until the last moment. This is unlike KZN, which always goes for their KZNbased choice and other provinces that make their choices known very early,” Ndletyana said.

Gauteng tends to reflect before it chooses a national leader to support. Even as it went to Polokwane in 2007, the province was divided between Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma, with some opting for Tokyo Sexwale, who was a third candidate.

But the province finally settled for Zuma Ndletyana said even if Gauteng was not forthright about him, Ramaphosa represents safety because he has the advantage of incumbency.

People would support him merely for that reason, especially in provinces with interim provincial structures such as Free State, North West and Western Cape.

The president has publicly stated backing from the Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga, Limpopo and Northern Cape.

Ndletyana envisages intense disagreements and contest around the deputy president because of the multiplicity of candidates.

At the moment, there is no clear cut candidate and the provinces will not be punished for their choices for the number two position.