Polokwane – The numbers are stark. A national survey shows that young people entering the job market with only a matric certificate can expect a basic salary of around R5 700 per month. A graduate with a degree earns nearly three times that at around R18 168.

But for thousands of young people in Limpopo, the question isn’t just what they will earn. It’s whether they will find a job at all.

New data from Statistics South Africa’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey for the first three months of 2026 paints a concerning picture for the province as a whole.

Limpopo’s unemployment spikes

Nationally, South Africa’s official unemployment rate rose to 32.7% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 31.4% in the previous quarter.

But Limpopo’s unemployment rate jumped by 3.5 percentage points to hit 31.7%, the second-largest increase of any province after Mpumalanga.

The qualification gap

For young job seekers in Polokwane and the rest of Limpopo, the financial penalty for not having a tertiary education is severe.

According to the latest salary survey by Remchannel, a subsidiary of Old Mutual Corporate, the median basic salary for a matriculant entering the workforce with no prior experience is R5 700 per month. With benefits such as pension contributions and medical aid subsidies included, the median total package rises to approximately R11 700.

The same report shows that graduates with no experience who secure permanent positions earn a median basic salary of R18 168. With benefits, their median total package could jump to R25 000.

In financial and mining sectors – both relevant to Limpopo’s economy – the average graduate salary climbs even higher to R26 568 per month, according to Remchannel’s findings cited by Eyewitness News.

That means a new graduate could earn nearly five times what a matriculant takes home in basic pay. However, while having a degree improves your odds, it does not guarantee work.

The national youth unemployment rate, measuring those aged 15 to 34 who are actively seeking work, stands at a staggering 45.8% according to Stats SA.

For every young graduate who secures a R26 000 per month position, there are others still waiting for their first break.

Also read: Young graduates struggle to find work in Limpopo

The government’s promise

Premier Phophi Ramathuba told the provincial legislature during her State of the Province Address in March that Limpopo created 64 000 jobs during 2025, with total provincial employment growing from 1 488 000 in the first quarter of last year to 1 552 000 by year end.

She set a target of pushing unemployment below 20%.

But the first-quarter 2026 data suggest that momentum has stalled. Employment in Limpopo has now dropped back to 1 509 000, erasing much of the gain made last year.

The road ahead

The first-quarter jobs data present a mixed picture for Polokwane job seekers. Year-on-year, Limpopo has added 21 000 jobs, but the sharp quarter-on-quarter decline suggests fragility.

The 43 000 jobs lost between October and March bring into question whether the 2025 recovery was a temporary bounce, or if Limpopo can return to the growth trajectory the Premier celebrated just two months ago.