No party expected to dominate local polls – analysis

Coalition governments expected to shape KZN political landscape, with analysts predicting no outright victors in 2026 local elections

1 hour ago

Muzi Zincume 3 minutes read

No political party will emerge the outright victor in next week’s Local Government Elections; electorates should expect various parties to work together to form coalition governments.

This perception was shared by local political analyst Professor Musa Xulu of Indonsa yeSizwe, who believes the existence of the uMkhonto we Sizwe Party (MKP) has made these elections more interesting.

Xulu said, previous contests in King Cetshwayo District would be between the ANC and IFP, but the MKP has created some confusion about the possible electoral outcomes this time around.

“From an analytical point of view, it can be noted that in the region, it is highly unlikely that any one political party will have an outright majority. It can also be expected that where the MKP fails to secure outright majorities, in fact across KZN, other parties will form coalition governments, as happened in the KZN provincial government.

Local political analyst, Professor Musa Xulu

“The MKP has emerged as a populist political party, which, unfortunately, has exposed that it has no clear policies. It is internally unstable, and voters may fear that this instability will spill over to the municipalities it controls. It has no credible experience in governance; the State capture and arms deal acts of corruption hang over its head.

“Only one person, MKP President Jacob Zuma, seems to make all the decisions, which means he may run all the municipalities it controls,” said the professor.

On the other hand, Xulu explained, the ANC is on an upward trajectory and has improved its communication strategy.

“The IFP has successfully used the legacy of Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi, attracting sympathy and nostalgic votes, especially from its constituency of elderly voters,” he said.

Party loyalists

Xulu said King Cetshwayo District has a high population concentrated in the urban sprawl of uMhlathuze, while smaller towns like Mthonjaneni, uMfolozi, eShowe and Nkandla also have their own population variables, with the majority of voters being rural.

“Rural voters tend to be conservative and loyal to political parties with a proven history of administration and governance. Urban voters, especially in the townships, tend to be more focused on the current state of their municipalities.

“At the same time, urban voters tend to scrutinise their municipal councillors much more closely than rural voters,” he said.

Coalition politics

Seasoned politician Ivan Naidoo said the evolving political landscape, marked by the rise of independent candidates and a growing number of political parties, underscores the importance of coalition politics.

“When coalition politics is managed with mutual respect and accountability, political alliances can strengthen oversight and promote responsible governance. In this changing environment, securing an outright majority may prove increasingly difficult, making political cooperation essential to forming a stable and effective administration,” said Naidoo.

He believes it is imperative that all candidates approach this new political reality with fidelity, integrity and a shared commitment to the public good.

“Ultimately, no single individual or party can succeed in isolation. The ability to work in tandem, rise above partisan interests, and build consensus will be crucial to establishing a council that is effective, efficient, transparent and accountable to the people it serves,” he said.

He added that the future of local government depends not merely on who leads, but also on how elected representatives work together in the interests of the communities they serve.

“Candidates who have not familiarised themselves with the municipality’s IDP, which is intrinsically linked to the municipal budget, will find it challenging to translate their campaign promises into practical, deliverable outcomes.

“Until the adjustment budget is adopted, the existing budgetary framework and approved programmes remain in place.

“Effective leadership requires a thorough understanding of these governing instruments to ensure political commitments are realistic, financially viable and aligned with the municipality’s strategic priorities,” he said.

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