Inflation up by 0.5% in October

Annual consumer inflation increased for a third consecutive month in October to 5.9% from 5.4% in September, verging on the upper limit of the South African Reserve Bank’s inflation target range.

According to Statistics SA, consumer prices increased on average 0.9% between September and October, the highest monthly increase in three months.

The categories that recorded annual inflation rates above 6.0% in October were food and non-alcoholic beverages (8.7%), transport (7.4%), health (6.4%) and restaurants and hotels (6.3%).

Inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages accelerated for a second consecutive month, rising to 8.7% in October from 8.1% in September and 8.0% in August. The 1.5% monthly increase was the highest since January this year when it was 1.8%.

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Eggs, rice and potatoes inflation accelerated

Milk, eggs and cheese inflation accelerated to 12.4% from 11.2% in September, mainly due to the price of eggs increasing sharply in October, with the price index jumping by 13.4% from September, pushing the annual rate to 24.4%.

The prices of poultry-related products, including eggs, came under increased upward pressure due to the outbreak of avian flu in the country that led to the culling of millions of chickens which resulted in market shortages and panic buying from anxious consumers.

On the other hand, the annual inflation rate for bread and cereals slowed to 8.8% from 9.2% in September. Maize meal prices decreased by 1.3% between September and October, lowering the annual rate for this staple to 8.6%.

However, rice cost 20,8% more than a year ago, with the average price of a kilogram of rice increasing from R22,48 to R28,59 over this time.

Consumers did not have to only fork out more for eggs. Potatoes also became more expensive, recording a price increase of 21.2% between September and October, taking the annual rate for to 64.6%. The average price for potatoes increased by R8,89 from R13,93 per kilogram in October 2022 to R22,82 per kilogram in October 2023.

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Inflation for vegetables and fruit

Statistics SA says inflation for vegetables and fruit is typically volatile. The annual rate for vegetables was 23.6% in October, the highest reading since December 2007 when the rate was 23.8%. While potatoes recorded the largest monthly increase, sweet potatoes also cost 16.4% more, as well as tomatoes that cost 15.2% more and pumpkin 11.1% more.

The annual rate for fruit was 8.5%. Banana prices increased by 33.0% in the 12 months to October. In October 2022, bananas cost on average R14,92 and in October 2023 the price increased to R21,20 per kilogram.

Meat inflation continued to slow, with the annual rate for meat moderating to 3.4% in October from 3.8% in September. Meat inflation has been on a general downward trajectory since the recent peak of 11.4% in February.

Consumers in Western Cape felt the most inflation pain

Statistics SA says it was interesting to see that price increases vary across the country. Western Cape consumers felt the most pain, with the price of half a dozen of eggs increasing by R6,42 from an average price of R17,71 in October 2022 to R24,13 in October 2023. Gauteng consumers had to fork out an additional R4,81 over the same period to pay an average price of R24,32.

Of the seven provinces surveyed, the Free State bucked the trend, with breakfast becoming slightly cheaper, with the average price for half a dozen of eggs decreasing from R19,33 in October 2022 to R18,38 in October 2023.

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Transport inflation also up

It was not only food that ate into consumers’ budgets in October. Transport inflation accelerated to 7.4% from 4.2% in September, mainly due to a 6.5% monthly increase in the fuel price, taking the annual rate to 11.2% from 1.5% in September.

The price of inland 95-octane petrol increased to R25,68 per litre in October from R24,54 in September. This was the second highest price for petrol ever, just below the record R26,74 charged in July 2022.

Vehicle inflation, which includes the prices of new and used cars, on the other hand, eased to 7.8% from 8.4% in September.

Restaurants and hotels also registered an annual price increase of 6.3%. Menu prices were 6.4% higher than a year ago, while hotel rates increased by 9.7% between September and October, taking the annual rate to 6.1%.

The graph below shows the products that recorded the largest price increases in October.