Health researchers predict over 40 000 deaths and more than a million Covid-19 infections in SA in 2020

Most health research institutions have predicted that South Africa might have more than 40 000 deaths due to Covid-19 and over a million infections by the end of the year.

On Thursday, the health ministry was briefed by several health researchers presenting their various modelling strategies of possible Covid-19 trends in South Africa.

As the lockdown eases most researchers anticipated a surge in infections and expected a peak in the infections between June and August.

South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium’s Prof Juliet Pulliam said an increase in the mortality rate would peak when the health system gets overwhelmed and unable to treat everyone.

She said, however, the number could change depending on a change in society’s behaviour to reduce transmission.

“The current projection for the number of deaths is determined largely by the number of infections and cases that are predicted to occur.

“We have taken into account the age structure of the population and age-specific case fatality rates.

“Under almost all scenarios the hospital and ICU capacity will be exceeded, though timing and extent is uncertain.”

She said the health facilities needed to have more resources to debunk the anticipated number of deaths.

The experts highlighted that these projections might change depending on society’s adaptation to health measures.

Researchers also said the projections might change as the actual information is obtained.

The majority of the researchers presented the following with others having complete different projections:

• Between June and November a total of more than a million people are expected to have contracted Covid-19.
• Between June and November ICU beds needed might be about 20 000 to 35 000.
• Between June and November general hospital beds needed was expected to be between 75 000 and 90 000.

Gauteng Premier David Makhura said the province had 8 301 available hospital beds and would add more of these due to the anticipated hike.

Barry Childs from the Actuarial Society of Science said there would about 75% of asymptomatic people that would test positive for the virus, which was a prediction most of the scientist made.

He further cautioned the department not to neglect people living with HIV and those diagnosed with Tuberculosis as the neglect might result in a steeper death toll.

“There is a significant concern that management of other conditions fall by the wayside due to the focus on Covid-19 and we might face a crisis due to this.”

University of Cape Town Professor Co-Pierre Georg stressed that the different provinces needed localised lockdowns set to fully crush the infection curve.

He said doing this, effective contact tracing was key and improved methods at accessing people without smartphones was important.

Meanwhile, many expected the infection rate to rise post lockdown. Nick Hudson from Pandemic Data and Analytics, said he expected differently.

Hudson said people would lose lives due to the impact of the lockdown, and that the economic downfall impact would be severe compared to the health impact.

Health Minister Dr Zweli Mkhize said the department was studying the presentations and taking some of the projections into consideration.

He said the projections gave the department insight into what may transpire and further educated the health ministry on measures that could be taken.

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