As South Africans woke yet again to a day of rolling stages 4 and 6 load-shedding, predictions of a looming stage 16 continued to dominate news headlines.

Caxton Local Media spoke to Eskom spokesperson Daphne Mokwena, who says the document in which these draft stages are mentioned is just that, a draft. She says they do not want to speculate too much about what it might mean if accepted by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa).

Mokwena explains that if approved, this will be the third revision to the National Rationalised Specifications (NRS048-9) Code of Practice. Version two, currently in use after being updated in 2019, makes provision for eight stages of load-shedding.

She emphasises that there are currently no dates as to when the document might be approved/reviewed and referred us to Vally Padayachee, the chairperson of the NRS work group, for comment on the timeline.

Stage 16 speculation

Some reports suggest that 32 hours of load-shedding in a single round of power cuts are a possibility, but Mokwena says that she is only able to speculate on what stage 16 might look like based on the current document. She stresses that the newest version of the document might take a different approach to power cuts.

“The formula of the current document shows that during stage 1, for example, a citizen experiences two hours of load-shedding. Stage 8 is 16 hours [of load-shedding], so I am not sure if… the same pattern will be followed… or if it will take a different pattern. We do not want to mislead the public as this is not yet confirmed,” she explains.

Eskom slams claims of grid collapse

At a press briefing yesterday, EFF leader Julius Malema claimed that a total grid collapse and descent into darkness will happen within the next two weeks.

Julius Malema: ‘In the next two weeks , we have been warned , there is going to be darkness’ #EFFPresser pic.twitter.com/Ob5yTz8lU5

— Anele Fumba 🇿🇦 (@Anelefumba) May 15, 2023

Mokwena slams this as ‘totally misleading the nation’. “It is a total, absolutely irresponsible video… because it is baseless. Remember, the reason why we implement load-shedding is to avoid grid collapse. Last week, Botswana experienced a grid collapse and we even helped them to restart their generators. Our system operator looks at our grid at every second of the day and hence you will see, sometimes to the dismay of the public, that we change from one stage to the other.

“That is the right way to manage the grid so that we don’t come close to a grid collapse. Obviously, a grid collapse can be caused by different things, but one of our levers to avoid it is load-shedding.”

‘Advanced levels of load-shedding’

Power and energy expert Padayachee, who is a former executive manager of Eskom Generation and a former senior executive of City Power Johannesburg, chairs the NRS Association of SA, which is working on version three of the NRS 048-9 Code of Practice. He explains that the code looks at risk mitigation to avoid a total collapse of the national grid and prevent a national blackout.

He says that stage 16 is not mentioned in the draft. “We do not mention that, we mention ‘advanced levels’ of load-shedding, which means potentially migrating to beyond stage 8.”

It is hoped, he says, that version three will be approved by his association ‘hopefully by the end of this month’.

He stresses that this does not mean that the document is then legally mandated. Instead, it would be a ‘voluntary’ document, which the NRS Association of SA must submit to Nersa for legal mandating. “It will go through their processes; we don’t have any control with regards to legal mandating completion timelines,” he adds.

Padayachee emphasises that the association, of which Eskom is a part, undertook significant consultation with various stakeholders to compile the latest version of the document.

“We went beyond our mandate, which says we will consult with relevant industry players, to prepare the document.”

He says it is unlikely that South Africa will go beyond stage 8. The document, however, will equip the National Control Centre/system operator team to technically manage the grid to avoid a potential blackout and grid collapse. “The NRS Association, through the NRS048-9 Code of Practice, provide a tool for them on how to best manage and stabilise the grid,” he adds.

Padayachee reiterates that the NRS048-9 Code of Practice in no way ‘subrogates’ the role of the national system operator in taking the necessary actions to protect the national grid from collapse.