South Africans have been watching their money closely for months, with the higher prices paid at tills and petrol stations taking their toll on consumers – and more belt-tightening is forecast as a result of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war.

The global Covid-19 pandemic and various lockdowns impacted supply chains, which saw many prices creeping up, says Chris Hattingh, a researcher at the Institute for Race Relations. Petrol now costs over R21 a litre inland, and this is affecting the cost of goods even more, as increases are passed on to the consumer.

While Statistic South Africa’s 2021 fourth quarter report released this week showed that despite the economy growing by 1.2% in that quarter, ‘real GDP has yet to recover to the level recorded in the second quarter of 2021, before civil unrest and stricter lockdown restrictions shook the economy in the third quarter’.

WATCH: Analyst Chris Hattingh chats to Izak du Plessis about the impact of the Ukraine crisis on South Africa’s already turbulent economy.

“Real GDP continues to lag pre-pandemic levels too, with economic activity on par with the third quarter of 2017. The economy is 1.8% smaller than it was in the first quarter of 2020,” reads the report.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have a definite impact on the South African economy,” says Hattingh.

“… the biggest immediate threat is to South African exporters. The Eurozone is South Africa’s biggest export market,” he says.

Hattingh explains that conflict between any European nations increases the possibility that South African exporters will not be able to export their products. With sanctions and trade embargoes, it will be even more difficult for goods to move around the northern hemisphere, he says.

The other big factor is the price of oil – which has surged following the Ukraine crisis.

Some experts have warned that petrol may reach R40 per litre before the end of the year.

Hattingh says higher fuel prices affect the price of transport and eventually food and other consumer products, which will result in higher inflation rates.

“This will be bad news for the South African consumer… we can only hope that global forces don’t play out in such a way that emerging markets such as South Africa suffer the most again,” says Hattingh.