War in Niger ‘unlikely’, peaceful resolution expected

The possibility of an outbreak of full-scale war in Niger, similar to the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, is unlikely because Africa often resolves such conflicts through negotiations.

This is the view of political analyst Prof Dirk Kotzé, who said it would be difficult for the regional economic community in West Africa or an international body to dismiss the coup outright because it was a popular military takeover of power.

This could force some concessions to let the military stay on until democratic elections were organised. Kotzé, from the political sciences department at the University of South Africa, said despite the threat by the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) to invade Niger militarily to force it to reverse its military coup and restore the civilian government, a war was unlikely.

Rather, he said the impasse could be resolved by peaceful means involving a proposal for a timeline for the new military junta to hand over power to a civilian government.

Following a coup in the uranium-rich Niger recently, army commander General Abdourahamane Tchiani took over as new ruler, replacing President Mohamed Bazoum, an ally of the United States.

The army defied a seven-day ultimatum issued by Ecowas to relinquish power and restore Bazoum to power.

Instead, it sought and received support from neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso, which both offered to support Niger to fight back should Ecowas attack the west African country.

During the coup, the military ordered France, which has military bases in the country, to leave Niger. It also stopped all uranium exports to the West in a move it said was anti-imperialist.

There is a growing trend in West Africa to get France out of its former colonies, from which it continued to exploit mineral resources, forced the countries to pay colonial royalties to Paris and its established military bases inside them.

French neocolonialism had been despised by many African leaders because it stood in the way of African independence.

The fear of war grew when France threatened to intervene and the European Union offered to support the Ecowas invasion of Niger.

This, combined with a threat by the Russian-sponsored Wagner Group to back Niger to fight Ecowas, raised the spectre of regional war similar to Ukrainian-Russian war.

But Kotzé said: “It is unlikely any form of organised war or military operation within Ecowas will take place.”

He said it was more like a strategy on the part of Ecowas to threaten and intimidate, rather than invade.

“What they possibly are trying to do is to put the military junta in a corner, to a large extent, so that they don’t have any other option but to be willing to negotiate ultimately,” he said.

In the final analysis, Ecowas and even the United Nations (UN) or African Union would come to the party to negotiate a solution that would include a timetable for the military to withdraw from government, the formation of a transition arrangement and the holding of democratic elections.

Kotzé said, however, that Ecowas and even the UN would be faced with a dilemma because Niger’s military takeover was “a popular coup”.

“It seems there is genuine unhappiness against the government and that is why there is so much support for the military.”