JZ exit good for ANC

In what is a very complex jigsaw puzzle, there are more pieces to be filled by the ANC as it negotiates the removal of President Jacob Zuma ahead of next year’s national elections.

But with the clock ticking, every day spent with Zuma as the country’s president can only hurt the party’s results when voters head to the polls.

Added to this conundrum, according to political commentators, the confidence displayed by ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa at the weekend where he indicated during various interviews that the Zuma issue needs to be dealt with could have been strategically played on his part.

Ramaphosa said Zuma’s exit should not humiliate him – but Ramaphosa himself faces a tough camp within the ANC in Zuma’s f avour. “The truth is, as much as they need space to deal with this, they need to understand that each and every day they carry on with Zuma as president they incur the cost. This will begin to show towards the 2019 elections,” said Ralph Mathekga, political analyst and author of When Zuma Goes.

It would also be detrimental should Zuma give this year’s State of the Nation address, he added. “They have to think about it.” Even if the “water under the bridge” stance is taken by the ANC should Zuma gives the address, it would still cost the party. “The cost is already there and opposition parties are going to work very hard to try and cultivate on this uncertainty within the ANC.”

The ANC needs to expedite this without humiliating Zuma as the potential backlash will be “very severe”, said Mathekga, adding that the public may have expected an announcement by Ramaphosa during his deliverance of the ANC’s January 8 statement.

“Zuma still has a hold on the NEC and within the top six. It’s also about the broader anti-establishment movement within the ANC. And Cyril is seen as part of that establishment. Business likes him, corporate South Africa likes him and he seems to be understood very well by the finance community globally.”

However, in the ANC, “there is a strong sense of determination, where people are saying, ‘we don’t want to be told by corporates such as Steinhoff as to what we need to do’. So within that framework, Cyril will not be able to move more directly against Zuma. It will need to be negotiated.” Zuma’s removal also has implications “on the plethora of court cases” against him “which the ANC will have to negotiate about”.

“He knows this has to be done very quickly. But he also understands if he does it without a long-term strategy and without a deeper conversation with Zuma’s loyalists, it’s going to backfire.” Wits School of Governance Professor Susan Booysen said Ramaphosa’s confidence was exuded amid “volatile terrain”.

“The confidence could be politically strategic given that he is in a very volatile terrain where he has to win over the opposing faction. “Maybe he was confident all along but he couldn’t show that confidence as it would be interpreted as arrogance. It is important that he feels confident to show more of his direction of a non-negotiable pending exit for Zuma.”