ANC will hurt at polls next year with 56% of vote – survey

A new poll shows that the ANC’s wish for a two-thirds majority in next year’s national election is unlikely, and suggests that the party might instead fall below 60% of the vote for the first time in its history.

Meanwhile, Democratic Alliance (DA) leader Mmusi Maimane has warned voters against a ANC – Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) coalition, which he says would be “dangerous for the country”.

Maimane said the ANC did not deserve a stronger mandate from the voters in the 2019 elections, because it will bring no change in people’s lives.

“The ANC and the EFF have shown in 2018 that they will work together to protect corruption, for example in Nelson Mandela Metro, and to divide the country and undermine private property rights, by trying to amend the Constitution to allow for expropriation without compensation,” he said.

Ramaphosa had also failed to live up to his promise to take tough action against corruption and to get the economy growing.

Maimane said this while presenting the DA’s 2018 government review, titled New Dawn, Same Darkness, in parliament, flanked by DA chief whip John Steenhuisen.

Maimane’s tongue lashing against the ruling party came as a new snap poll conducted by the South African Institute of Race Relations revealed the ANC will not get two-thirds majority, with its support down to 56%.

This, however, was still up four percentage points from September (52%). On a projected 69% voter turnout scenario, this suggests a possible election win at 59%.

This would mean the ANC could fall be below 60% for the first time since 1994.

The poll showed that DA was on 18%, down from September (23%), and on a projected 69% turnout scenario, came out with 22%.

The EFF received 11%, down from September (13%) and at 10% on a projected 69% turnout scenario.

The latest poll was conducted between November 26 and December 4, via a fully demographically representative sample comprising only registered voters. A total of 1 017 respondents were questioned and the poll allowed for the margin of error of 3.9%.

Three questions were asked: voting intention, party favourability (ANC, DA, EFF), and strength of support for former Cape Town mayor Patricia de Lille’s proposed new political party, when forced to choose between it and the four biggest political parties.

“The potential market for De Lille’s new party seems to be primarily among undecided voters, some of whom are likely alienated from the DA and the ANC.

“After that, she draws support directly from respondents who had previously selected the DA or the ANC,” the poll report reads.

Interestingly, in Gauteng the poll found that no party held a majority. The ANC comes in with 48%, the DA 25% and the EFF 12%.

The ANC has increased by two percentage points from September, the DA declined by three percentage points and the EFF has declined by five percentage points.

On a projected 73% turnout scenario, the ANC comes in at 50%, the DA at 27% and the EFF at 10%.

INFO

• Mmusi Maimane, in his annual government review, said as the year comes to an end, former president Jacob Zuma remained out of jail while the public continued to pay for his defence in court, despite President Cyril Ramaphosa having direct power to stop this arrangement immediately.
• He expressed concern that there had been no further arrests or charges against those implicated in state capture, including the Estina dairy accused whose case was withdrawn despite the seriousness of the crime.
• He appealed to new NPA boss, Shamila Batohi, to reconsider the decision soon, and include the prosecution of former Free State Premier, Ace Magashule.

– ericn@citizen.co.za

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