Political analyst says proposed deal between Mbalula and Mashatile will only benefit them, not the ANC or the country
It will take more than consensus to save the ANC after its elective conference in 2027, say political analysts.
This comes after reports that the party’s secretary general Fikile Mbalula and Deputy President Paul Mashatile have been engaged in negotiations that could lead to an uncontested ANC elective conference in 2027.
Both leaders are reportedly eyeing the position of party president after President Cyril Ramaphosa leaves his position in 2027.
Some in the party believe taking this route will help the ANC avoid factional battles that could further weaken the party. The process has been described as “political management”.
However, political analyst Ntsikelelo Breakfast believes this approach will not help the ANC regain public trust.
“The ANC has been affected by a whole range of things, the institutionalisation of corruption, a slow pace of service delivery and cadre deployment.
“The point I am making is this: all those factors have created a negative impression about the ANC to the electorate, so the brand ANC has been dragged through the mud.
“To bring back the glory of the ANC I think it is a mission impossible,” he said.
Meanwhile, another political analyst from North West University (NWU), Andre Duvenhage, believes that a pact between Mbalula and Mashatile is a recipe for disaster.
“For the country, this is negative; from a political and governance perspective, this is negative. The ANC is not a stabilising factor, it is an unstable factor. This will reflect negatively on governance at large,” said Duvenhage.
Does Mbalula want to save the ANC?
Breakfast said the proposed deal between Mbalula and Mashatile will only benefit them.
“If they are saying that they are doing this for the ANC, I do not think that they are being honest.
“This is about themselves securing two powerful positions, not about the ANC. Mbalula knows that if he becomes deputy, then he stands a chance of being president one day. But that will not make the ANC bounce back to power or redeem its glory,” he said.
Breakfast said it is clear that the debate about who will take over from Ramaphosa has started within the ANC.
“Mbalula is not being honest. He said he is going to put the discourse of the upcoming ANC conference on hold, yet he has struck a deal with another person, and he has [warned] other people not to enter into the discourse about what kind of leadership the ANC should have,” he said.
Mashatile not a good embodiment of ANC
He said having Mashatile as the party’s candidate for president does not help the party’s damaged image.
“Then you have a deputy president who has been found wanting for lying that he does not own a house, and then it turns out that he owns that house.
“There have been other allegations about him which are questionable, so he is really not a good embodiment of the ANC,” he said.
There are reports of a group in the ANC that wanted billionaire Patrice Motsepe to succeed Ramaphosa as President of the ANC and possibly the country as well.
‘Governance will suffer’
Another political analyst from North West University (NWU), Andre Duvenhage, believes that a pact between Mbalula and Mashatile is a recipe for disaster.
“For the country, this is negative; from a political and governance perspective, this is negative. The ANC is not a stabilising factor, it is an unstable factor. This will reflect negatively on governance at large,” said Duvenhage.
Mashatile’s connections with MK party
Duvenhage added that this proposed alignment is also dangerous because there is a belief that Mashatile could have links with former president Jacob Zuma.
This perception was created when the deputy president opposed forming a government of national unity (GNU) with the DA, and instead reportedly pushed for an alliance with Zuma’s MK party.
“The Mashatile lines is going as far as KZN and probably towards the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party.
“This could move the whole centre within the ANC to the left. If there is co-operation between Jacob Zuma and Paul Mashatile, that will take the ANC into a new dimension of radical politics and most probably the continuation of corrupt politics, because both of them are associated with corruption and what we call the mafia state.”
Patrice Motsepe
Billionaire Patrice Motsepe has been put forward as a viable alternative to the current ANC leaders, but Breakfast believes that not even he can save the ANC.
“We do not know if he will accept that nomination or not but still, even if he steps up to the plate, I do not think he will change the hearts and lives of the people. The brand ANC has been affected by a lot of bad things,” he said.
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Succession could hurt Ramaphosa
Meanwhile, Breakfast said the succession battle is also a thorny issue for Ramaphosa.
“The issue is that he has a lot of problems. One of them is the Phala Phala issue; he is not out of the woods yet. That issue is still hanging. Whoever comes after him must not be loyal to him in terms of covering for him. At some point, he will face the music in terms of the Phala Phala issue,” he said.
Duvenhage said ANC chairperson Gwede Mantashe will likely remain on Ramaphosa’s side.
However, he said talks on a new alignment indicate that the Ramaphosa era is coming to an end.
“If Mbalula supports Paul Mashatile, it is highly likely that Mashatile will win the battle within the ANC.
“He (Ramaphosa) is taking no decisions and he is moving through the steps and he is ticking boxes. For now, his main aim is not to divide the ANC, but [he is not governing] South Africa.
“He is not addressing the main issues; he is what they call a lame duck president in the extreme,” he said.
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