The ANC still believes it is the only party that can govern South Africa, despite a decline in voter support.
The ANC’s midterm report has revealed a shocking picture of a party slowly dying in urban areas, with an analyst reaffirming the view that it is becoming a rural party.
The party’s secretary-general, Fikile Mbalula, delivered his report on the health of the party in all nine provinces at the National General Council (NGC) in Boksburg on Monday.
He said the ANC in Gauteng is challenged by several factors that have weakened the party, ushering it into a minority government after the 2024 elections.
He said workers in this province no longer believe in the promises of the ANC. Furthermore, he said black professionals and entrepreneurs have also lost faith in the ANC.
Businesses have also raised concerns about the ANC’s governance in South Africa’s economic hub.
“In the 2024 elections, ANC support fell to 34.7% confirming a historic loss of hegemony and forcing the movement into a competitive coalition arrangement.
“The ANC now governs through coalitions in Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane. A provincial task team was appointed to rebuild the organisation,” he said.
The ANC’s membership in this province stands at 46 000, with only 178 branches being in good standing.
ANC relying on rural support?
Political analyst Andre Duvenhage said the ANC is becoming a rural party.
“The ANC has control over the traditional leadership in the rural areas; to that extent, they are able to mobilise that support.
“I have no doubt that they will be able to perform better in the rural areas, and that excludes KZN because that is a dynamic on its own.
“But we must also take into consideration that we are expecting a drop in support for the ANC, the drop will be stronger in the urban areas and in the metropolis than in the traditional rural environment,” he said.
Can the ANC win back rural support in KZN?
Mbalula said KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) has experienced a severe shift in the balance of forces since the 2021 local government elections. This province attained 17% of the provincial votes in last year’s general elections.
“The IFP regained rural ground, while the MKP grew exponentially with support from former ANC members. The most damaging trend has been rising absenteeism, particularly among historic ANC supporters who chose not to vote rather than defend,” he said.
Mbalula said voters in this province were losing faith in the ANC and are demanding improved services and accountability.
“Organisationally, this province entered the period with weak branches, factionalism, collapsed branches, and declining discipline. In February 2025, the NEC intervened by appointing a provincial task team to stabilise the organisation, rebuild unity and prepare for local government elections,” he said.
Mbalula said this PTT is hard at work wooing back lost membership through various programmes, including community engagements by its leaders.
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Where the ANC is ‘winning’
Mbalula described Limpopo as one of the province’s most stable for the ANC.
“Organisationally, Limpopo remains stable with 520 of 568 branches in good standing,” he said.
He said these provinces had also completed all their regional elective conferences this year.
“The province has implemented extensive political programmes including commemorations, community campaigns and the 70th anniversary of the Freedom Charter,” he said.
“Their provincial elections strategy for the 2026 local government elections has been adopted and rolled out in all regions. Limpopo is one of the best-performing provinces for the ANC,” he said.
Mbalula said Mpumalanga retains overall political dominance. The ANC is completely in charge there.
But he said this province is being challenged by declining voter confidence, uneven service delivery, reduced voter participation and weakened organisational cohesion in some areas.
“Although the ANC remains the majority, the 2024 elections revealed sharp drops in support in key municipalities,” he said.
He said 43% of registered voters in this province had not participated in the last elections.
“The motive forces in Mpumalanga remain historically loyal to the ANC…organisationally, the ANC remains functional in Mpumalanga,” he said.
He said the party in the Northern Cape is strong and united.
“The ANC in this province has won even wards which belonged to the DA…of the province’s 232 branches, 218 of which are 94% in good standing, reflecting high levels of organisational stability. Their membership stands at 54,767,” he said.
Other concerns
With regard to the North West, Mbalula said it is under pressure due to organisational strain, declining voter confidence, and problems in local government.
“This province in the North West is one of our surprises in the last elections; they performed very, very well. That election reflected vulnerability, but it reflected the resilience of this province.”
He said this province’s regional and provincial structures are functional.
“Bojanala is the strongest region with high mobilisation and political education.”
He said the Western Cape is still a concern for the ANC.
“Having been out of power since 2009, and it has been under continuous DA governance, the ANC support here has steadily declined, and this has been worsened by the rise of the PA in coloured communities.
He said the MK party had also encroached on the ANC’s territory in this province.
Mbalula said the ANC has established a provincial task team to address problems in this province.
He said the Eastern Cape remains a key stronghold for the ANC.
Furthermore, Mbalula highlighted service delivery challenges and economic hardships.
“In the 2024 national and provincial elections, ANC support dropped to 62% with significant losses in Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City Metro, and there is growing opposition in the Sarah Baartman district municipality. While the ANC still controls most municipalities, several are hung, or they are under opposition rule, highlighting rising electoral vulnerability.
“Organisationally, the province faces a sharp decline in membership, down by over 37% since 2022. This is linked to demobilisation, system failures in the national database, and weakening branch activism. He said 483 branches are in good standing, and the province has over 700 branches.
But he said the provincial leadership has managed to stabilise the province.
Free State problems
He said the Free State has major organisational challenges, weakened branches, declining communal confidence, and distressed municipalities.
“Although the ANC attained a provincial majority in the 2024 elections…support has steadily declined from 2019, signalling reduced hegemony and an urgent need for visible governance.
“Branch functionality remains weak. Of the 319 branches with 34 200 members, only two remain within mandate.”
He said with the NEC’s support, the Free State is rebuilding capacity and capability.
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