Phala Phala crisis: David ‘The Cat’ Mabuza likely to be our next president?

Still limping from the devastating rejection by ANC branches, South Africa’s Deputy President David Mabuza may yet ascend to the country’s top job, albeit for a short period, as President Cyril Ramaphosa contemplates his political future in the wake of the findings on the Phala Phala robbery scandal.

Ramaphosa’s foes in the governing ANC and opposition parties are piling pressure on him to resign, two weeks ahead of the highly contested ANC national elective conference where he is seeking election for a second term.

The governing ANC’s 80-member national executive committee (NEC) was on Thursday expected to hold an urgent meeting to deliberate on the Section 89 panel’s damning findings. The meeting has since been postponed to Friday.

Ramaphosa’s world came crashing down late Wednesday after the panel’s scathing report found that he might have broken the law, and has a case to answer in the Phala Phala saga.

ALSO READ: Call for secret ballot when Parliament votes on Phala Phala report

‘Constitution says deputy becomes acting president’

Political analyst and public policy lecturer at Mpumalanga University Dr John Molepo says Mabuza would take over should Ramaphosa throw in the towel.

“If he leaves before the Nasrec conference, it would simply mean that Mabuza will become president. The constitution takes that stance that the deputy takes over.

“But if Ramaphosa goes to a conference this month and is elected president, [ANC acting secretary] Paul Mashatile could emerge as acting president should Ramaphosa later step down.

“In terms of party nominations, you can clearly see that the chances of being elected as ANC deputy president favour Mashatile. Phala Phala will haunt Ramaphosa even if he wins at Nasrec, he will have to step aside eventually,” said Molepo.

‘Could the cat rise again from the conference floor?’

Mabuza was elected Ramaphosa’s deputy at the 2017 elective conference.

He angered the radical economic transformation (RET) faction of the ANC when he switched allegiances hours before voting took place, and supported Ramaphosa’s slate.

The Mpumalanga politician denied betraying Ramaphosa’s opponent Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma at that conference, arguing that what had happened was a result of branch delegates who listened to his message of unifying the ruling party. 

“What do you think you sell? I mean, I don’t imagine how in a conference of more than 5 000 people, do you think I know how all of these people voted?” he asked EWN three years ago.

“It’s impossible. I only preached for unity and what prevailed is unity. That means that branch delegates heard my voice, heard my story to say it looks like this person is making sense because if we did not go the way we went, we would probably be talking about the ANC who is limping.”

READ MORE: Dlamini-Zuma calls for Ramaphosa to step aside over damning Phala Phala report

Mabuza was nicknamed “the cat” for his cunning political manoeuvring. He is known for playing his cards very close to his chest, only to do something unexpected and surprise friends and foes alike.

Could the possible caretaker president Mabuza garner enough nominations from the floor and land on the ballot at the conference?

Molepo said a cat does have many lives, and anything can happen at Nasrec even though presidential hopeful, ex-minister Zweli Mkhize and Mashatile enjoy support from branches.

“The margins are very wide for the nominees. It would be difficult for Mabuza to rise from the floor as far as the required threshold is concerned. But anything is possible in politics,” Molepo said.

Removal of a sitting president

Chapter 5 of the Constitution outlines the functions of the state president and the executive, while Section 89 provides guidelines on the removal of a sitting president.

The National Assembly, by a resolution adopted with a supporting vote of at least two-thirds of its members, may remove the president from office only on the following grounds:

• A serious violation of the Constitution or the law.
• Serious misconduct.
• Inability to perform the functions of the office.

After removal, the president may not receive any benefits from the office, and may not serve in any public office.

Following Parliament’s Rules Committee’s adoption of new rules for the removal of a president in 2018, procedures provide for any member of the National Assembly to initiate, through a substantive motion, a process for removal in terms of Section 89.

Once such a motion is submitted, National Assembly Speaker must refer it, and any supporting evidence, to a panel of three independent legal experts.

In Ramaphosa’s case, the Section 89 inquiry panel consisted of retired chief justice Sandile Ngcobo, former high court judge Thokozile Masipa and Richard Calland, an associate professor of public law at the University of Cape Town.

The beleaguered president cancelled his public engagements in the wake of the scathing report that was released by Parliament.

He is expected to address the nation soon, according to his spokesperson Vincent Magwenya.

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