Analysts say relations between the US and South Africa will improve after Trump, as SA remains a vital strategic partner on the African continent.
While relations between South Africa and the US will remain strained for some time and it could get worse before it gets better, ultimately America will avoid a complete divorce with Pretoria as it is a vital strategic partner on the Africa continent.
While the US can break ties with South Africa and vice versa and Pretoria can find alternatives, those new partners would not replace the US and would only minimise the impact of the blow.
This optimism is echoed by experts who maintain that, despite rising tensions, the two countries remain mutually dependent and attracted to each other.
Yet, many analysts point eastward, highlighting East Asia as a particularly lucrative market for South Africa, especially in agri business exports, thanks to its dynamic populations and rapid economic growth.
Europe, they note, continues to provide fertile ground for African exports, while the African Continental Free Trade Area offers an expanding platform that beckons with significant opportunities.
Analysts say political dynamics continue to shape ties
Political analyst Seshupo Mosala of North-West University said although relations are strained under the Trump administration, he is confident they will normalise under a future president once Trump’s four-year term ends.
“The relationship will remain strenuous but that does not mean that the US would cut off South Africa completely as others are predicting.
“South Africa is one of the strategic partners of the US because of its position and influence in the continent. Maybe under Trump we will never get to normalise those relations but definitely when a new US president comes, I believe that those relations will improve,” Mosala said.
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South Africa will not initiate breaking ties with the US because it derives much benefit, particularly in agriculture and motor vehicle exports.
“We can find alternatives but they would not be a replacement for US – they would minimise the impact of the US blow on us,” Mosala said.
Market diversification drives South Africa’s strategy
Political economy analyst Daniel Silke said South Africa itself would like to maintain trade with the US despite the tensions between the two countries.
Silke raises the question of dynamism in world markets and US unreliability as factors that compel countries to seek alternatives.
“It’s becoming a very competitive global environment and countries are looking to diversify their export markets. They see the US as being different, difficult, sometimes even an unreliable partner especially in the way it wields the carrot as a political leverage.
“For that reason, many countries are looking to expand their trading ties with new, up-and-coming markets where there are rising middle classes and customers with greater buying power,” Silke said.
Asia and Europe remain key trade partners
South Africa had been looking to Asia as a huge market for agriculture exports because of its growing populations, middle classes and high growth rates.
In addition to China, south east Asia in countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia have become key markets for South Africa’s agribusiness exports.
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Europe remains a good market for South Africa as it looks to retain healthy relations with South Africa.
“Everybody is doing it, everybody is looking to diversity their markets and this makes the world a much more competitive place in the light of a shrinking or more shrinking and more difficult trade relations with the US.
“For South Africa agribusiness exports are key. But it’s automobile exports to the US that would be hardest hit,” Silke said.
Africa and Brics partners seen as long-term alternatives
“The situation is made even more difficult by Chinese car brands that have begun to saturate international markets, which could make it difficult for South Africa to find markets for western automobile brands.
“However, Africa beckons, South Africa could also trade with the rest of Africa,” Silke said.
Mosala believes trade with the Brics partner countries would be vital as an alternative for South Africa.
In addition to its strong trade ties with China, South Africa should intensify relations with India. India could fill the gap of investment in manufacturing that South Africa desperately needs.
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