US Capitol riot probe subpoenas Trump. Now what?

Lawmakers investigating last year’s attack on the US Capitol pulled out their own version of the “October surprise” news jolt that often roils election years when they voted to compel testimony from Donald Trump.

The House select committee conducting the probe argues that the former president was directly involved in the bid to overturn his 2020 election defeat and in the violence in Washington that followed.

But can a congressional committee force Trump to testify? And what are the implications of the bombshell subpoena vote, just weeks before the investigation is due to wrap?

– Will Trump comply? –

Trump has never credibly explained his conduct around the time of the US Capitol insurrection. Investigators believe this is because he has no defense. 

Some analysts are entertaining the notion that the lifelong showman might testify anyway, relishing the spotlight as he airs his grievances ahead of another presidential run.

But the smart money is on Trump refusing to comply. 

The 76-year-old tycoon is expert at jamming up investigations in the courts and any effort to enforce his subpoena could take years to litigate. 

“There are various explanations (for) why the committee issued the subpoena,” said New York University law professor Stephen Gillers.

“The one I find most convincing is that it wanted to prevent Trump from later complaining the committee was unfair because he never had a chance to testify. The committee is saying, ‘Here’s your chance.'”

– What if he refuses? –

If Trump doesn’t play ball, the House can hold him in contempt of Congress, referring him for prosecution.

The Justice Department could then drop the case, as it did with Trump’s chief of staff Mark Meadows, or pursue charges, as with one-time White House strategist Steve Bannon. 

Trump would face at least 30 days in jail if convicted. But few experts believe he would actually spend a minute behind bars.

The DOJ will not take any public action before November’s midterm elections, in any case.

“Assuming that Trump is served with a subpoena, I’m certain that he’ll refuse to appear,” Aron Solomon, chief legal analyst for lawyers’ marketing agency Esquire Digital, told AFP. 

“Then things get very messy. Will the DOJ go after Trump if Congress refers the skipped subpoena to them? I seriously doubt it.”

– How much time do investigators have? –

Some experts believe the lawmakers looking into the Capitol assault would need years to get to the bottom of the byzantine web of interconnected plots that led to the violence.

In reality, they’ve got a few weeks.

The investigating body is a temporary “select” committee, meaning it sunsets with the current Congress at the end of the year.

The Republicans are expected to win back control of the House of Representatives in the midterms, and have vowed to shut down the investigation rather than extend its mandate.

– Will we see more hearings? –

Agreement by Trump to testify — either behind closed doors or via a deposition and then a public hearing — would be sure to spawn another dramatic hearing.

But given that this remains unlikely, the committee has been non-committal on whether it will appear again in public.

Many questions about the involvement of key Washington establishment figures in the scandal, and the conduct of the Secret Service, have been left on the table. 

One key issue under discussion in the committee’s final weeks is how it intends to release its full findings. 

– What will the report look like? –

The panel has said there may be an interim report, although no date has been announced.

The final report will distill more than a year of work, including 130,000 documents collected by investigators alongside testimony from more than 1,000 witnesses. 

As part of its final report, the committee is expected to propose reforms in the law that would shore up the US election system and help prevent another January 6-style attack.

This could end up being a futile exercise, however, with the House expected to change hands and Republicans largely dismissing the investigation as a partisan sham.

The committee has made clear it wants its final product to be a page-turner in the mold of the 9/11 Commission Report rather than the more stodgy Mueller report into Russian interference in the 2016 election.

– What about criminal referrals? –

Lawmakers could recommend that the Justice Department charge Trump or his allies for their roles in the attack on the Capitol and the plot to overturn the 2020 election.

Deputy chair Liz Cheney has made clear she believes investigators have gathered enough evidence to make criminal referrals.

Other committee members have suggested though that the issue is moot since the Justice Department is already conducting its own investigation into January 6 and its catalysts.