In Africa alone, there have been over 130 coups d’état, including failed coups since 1960. So what is happening in Zimbabwe right now is very African. In fact, some of the best and most well-organised coups have happened in Africa.

Only parts of South America and the Caribbean can rival Africans as the master of the coup d’état.

Before we answer whether a coup could happen in South Africa, we need to understand what a coup is?

Basically, a coup is when an element of the armed forces takes over the country. The very French-sounding “coup d’état” sounds way more impressive than it actually is. It normally never involves the whole army, but rather the more elite units within the armed forces.

Countries with strong paramilitary police and weak armies face the same dilemma.

Now let’s be clear, it is not only autocratic governments, but democratic, communistic, fascist and monarchies that can and have been overthrown by the very soldiers expected to protect them.

To counter a coup successfully, one would need, as a leader, a military arm separated from the military such as a Presidential Guard (Zimbabwe), Revolutionary Guard (Iran) or a strong police force.

So could a hypothetical coup d’état happen in South Africa?

I would love to say with 100% certainty “Never”, but the chances of it happening are incredibly slim.

Our military is very divided and the chain-of-command so big that no elite units could hypothetically mobilise in sufficient strength to secure the country.

Another aspect which would prevent any such hypothetical coup is the sheer size of the country and the diverse population groups.

Lastly and most importantly is the strength of the SAPS, which outnumbers the army. Add to this our strong democracy and a strong entrenched ruling party and the chances of the SA Military ever hypothetically mounting a coup is zero to none.

List of coups d’état and coup attempts by country

All you ever wanted to know about Coups

Also read: A stunned Zimbawe wonders what now?

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