ANC presidential battle: Numbers against Mkhize, even if Ramaphosa doesn’t make it

Former health minister Zweli Mkhize might be praying for President Cyril Ramaphosa to be impeached before the ANC’s elective conference at Nasrec next month, because the numbers are clearly against him if they are to go toe-to-toe.

Even if Ramaphosa were to be charged criminally for the shenanigans that occurred at his game farm in Limpopo, Mkhize, as a compromised candidate who is under investigation for corruption, is unlikely to replace him.

Mkhize’s support is confined to KwaZulu-Natal, his home province, which alone cannot guarantee him the ANC presidency and the presidency of the republic. Rather than go for Mkhize, delegates at Nasrec could opt for the party’s secretary-general, Paul Mashatile, who appeared to be popular in the majority of ANC provinces for the deputy president position.

Mashatile ‘popular’ in majority of ANC provinces

Some could nominate Mashatile and others could opt for former president Kgalema Motlanthe, who was never actually elected into the position but was a transitional stop-gap caretaker between the Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma presidencies.

Apart from KwaZulu-Natal, all provinces that will attend the ANC national conference nominated Ramaphosa to be afforded his second term at the helm. KwaZulu-Natal will send just over 700 delegates to the conference but the Ramaphosa supporting provinces, such as Eastern Cape, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, Gauteng, Northern Cape and North West, will send, at the lowest end, 274 delegates from the Northern Cape and, at the highest, 650 from Eastern Cape to the conference.

Northern Cape provincial spokesperson Thabo Mothibi confirmed yesterday that they would send at least 274 delegates, including the party leagues. Of that figure, 226 were from branches as convened. Ramaphosa also received endorsements from the ANC women’s and veterans task teams. But the national youth task team opted for Mkhize.

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If the nominations by provinces and leagues are anything to go by, Ramaphosa has the edge over Mkhize. The question of deputy president is tricky, but Mashatile appeared to be the favourite of many structures.

Ramaphosa strategically avoided choosing a running mate or a deputy. He feared alienating his supporters such as Justice Minister Ronald Lamola, Minister of Human Settlements Mmamoloko Kubayi and Eastern Cape premier Oscar Mabuyane, who are all vying for the position. As usual, it is difficult to pin Mashatile down to any of the two ANC main factions.

This week, he refused to choose a side, which some saw as being opportunistic, if not cowardly, instead of being principled by endorsing someone prior to election. If struggle credentials and leadership weight are used as criteria to compare Mkhize and Ramaphosa’s strength, then Ramaphosa is one or two notches above Mkhize.

Ramaphosa, who was born in Johannesburg, led the powerful National Union of Mineworkers, then the most influential and biggest trade union in South Africa, and was part of the mass democratic movement in the 80s. He was at the forefront of the Nelson Mandela release committee before being elected as the ANC secretary-general, succeeding his exile era predecessor, Alfred Nzo.

Mkhize’s struggle history ‘thinner’

When his term ended, he branched out into business. Pietermaritzburg-born Mkhize’s struggle history is thinner and overshadowed by his involvement in the medical profession. Not much can be said about his roles in the mass democratic movement, including the United Democratic Front, except that he served in the ANC’s health structures. Mkhize was ANC treasurer-general under the Zuma leadership in 2012.

However, there is a theory within the ANC that former exiles are better and that they, rather than those who remained in the country during the apartheid era, liberated the country.

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All of Ramaphosa’s competition, including Mkhize, Tourism Minister Lindiwe Sisulu and Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, were former exiles.

This exiles versus non-exiles tension could be seen in Sisulu’s rhetoric towards Ramaphosa. In media interviews, Sisulu cast aspersions on Ramaphosa’s struggle credentials, saying if you are a leader you must have some struggle credentials.

– ericn@citizen.co.za