POLOKWANE – Motorists are about to feel the sharpest pain at the pumps in South African history.

From October 7, petrol prices are projected to smash through the R30-per-litre barrier for the first time ever. For local drivers filling a standard 45-litre tank, a roughly R3-per-litre increase would mean paying about R135 more per fill-up than they did in September.

According to the latest Central Energy Fund data reported by BusinessTech, 95 petrol is currently running at an under-recovery of R3.12 per litre. If that gap carries through to the final adjustment, the price would come very close to – or potentially exceed – R30 per litre.

However, the final price has not yet been confirmed. BusinessTech reports that economists expect an increase of around R3 per litre, which could still leave the final price just below R30. Even so, October is expected to bring record-level petrol prices without government intervention.

And it’s not just petrol. According to Moneyweb, Diesel 0.005% is expected to climb above R33 per litre, also a new all-time high.

That’s bad news for Polokwane’s truckers, farmers and taxi operators and eventually for everyone who buys food and basic goods in Limpopo.

Why is this happening?

As reported by BusinessTech, Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop says the latest pressure is being driven by a weaker rand and higher international oil prices.

The rand is currently trading around R16.44 to the dollar. According to Bishop, the exchange rate is only offsetting about 4 cents per litre of the fuel under-recovery – nowhere near enough to counter the impact of higher oil prices. Brent crude is trading close to $107 a barrel.

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) explains that South Africa’s monthly fuel-price adjustments are influenced by international crude-oil prices, international petroleum-product prices and the rand/dollar exchange rate, among other factors.

No help from government

Anyone hoping for another fuel levy holiday shouldn’t hold their breath.

The temporary fuel-price relief introduced earlier this year has since been phased out. The latest projections therefore assume that motorists will face the full impact of the current international fuel-price shock unless the government intervenes.

The DMPR has previously explained that the fuel-price mechanism includes the slate levy, which can also affect the final price.

What it means for Polokwane

• Taxi fares will go up: Taxi associations in Mankweng, Dikgale, Seshego and Polokwane already pushed fares up earlier this year. The Seshego–Polokwane route jumped from R15 to R20, according to SABC News. With diesel climbing further, operators will have no choice but to pass on more costs.

• Food will get more expensive: Polokwane’s shops and informal traders rely on diesel trucks to keep shelves stocked. Stats SA data shows fuel prices already rose 34.3% in the year to June, pushing transport inflation to 12.7%.

• Interest rates could climb again: Economists warn that rising fuel costs could push inflation back toward 5.0%, which could put further pressure on interest rates in November. The Reserve Bank has since raised rates by 25 basis points to 7.25% in September, after a 25-basis-point increase in May.

The numbers at a glance

The DMPR will confirm the official adjustment before prices change on October 7.

For Polokwane’s motorists, farmers and small businesses, there’s no silver lining – just the certainty that filling up will cost more than it ever has before.