El Niño effects on Amanzimtoti’s water supply
El Niño is a climate pattern defined by the abnormal warming of surface ocean waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, but whose effects are felt globally.
AS WEATHER patterns get more extreme and unpredictable as a result of the El Niño climate phenomenon, uMngeni-uThukela Water (UUW) has observed a decline in dam storage levels on the South Coast.
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Higher than normal hot weather caused water levels at Nungwane Dam, which supplies Amanzimtoti, to decline by 19% between May and July.
UUW said this, combined with the potential development of drought conditions, poses a water security risk for the South Coast region.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern defined by the abnormal warming of surface ocean waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Its effects are felt globally and can be associated with dry and hot conditions, which, if prolonged, may lead to drought conditions. According to the South African Weather Service (SAWS), El Niño effects will peak during the period from October to December.
According to SAWS spokesperson Hannelee Doubell, the latest seasonal forecast for the October to December period indicates that below-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome over most of South Africa.
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“This period is also very likely to be associated with above-normal temperatures,” said Doubell.
If the 2026/27 El Niño event brings the expected below-normal rainfall, SAWS said it is likely that a high frequency of severe heatwaves will occur.
Doubell said the extent of expected heatwaves and water scarcity associated with the event will be closely monitored and communicated among disaster management structures, weather-sensitive industries, the media and the public.
Two of the most impactful El Niño events for Southern Africa are those of 1982/83 and 2015/16, which brought widespread drought. The very strong El Niño event of 1997/98, however, was associated with slightly above-normal rainfall over parts of South Africa’s summer rainfall region.
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