Blow by blow: Mexico vs Sweden

It was seconds away. Less than a minute away from this one being 4/7 to end in a draw, and that being a price worth backing.

Had Sweden’s game with Germany remained 1-1, then a draw in this game would have been enough to ensure both sides went through while taking out the Germans into the bargain.

Now, everything has changed. Mexico may need only a point to secure top spot (they’re 4/11 to get at least that) but are now not even sure to qualify despite winning their opening two games. Defeat in this one and a win for Germany over South Korea will leave three teams on six points and a goal-difference scrap for the two qualification places.

Assuming, as we must, that Germany don’t make another mistake, Sweden will have no choice but to go for this if they find themselves behind or level in the second half, while Mexico could yet find themselves chasing a goal should they be trailing at any stage.

It all means there is every chance that this game is wide open and chaotic down the final stretch, and 5/6 for a goal from 71:00 onwards looks pretty reasonable. It’s very likely that somebody is going to have to throw caution to the wind by that stage, making further goals more likely at either end.

Both these sides conceded in injury-time in their last game, albeit those two goals were of vastly contrasting significance.

The sheer number of penalties being awarded at this World Cup means known penalty takers remain value in the anytime goalscorer market pretty much anytime they are not the favourites. Carlos Vela at 12/5 and especially Andreas Granqvist at 6/1 fit the bill here.

·         Any goal after 71:00 at 5/6

·         Andreas Granqvist to score at 6/1