The phenomenon of megacities experiencing Day Zero conditions is globally on the increase. Whereas South Africa’s Cape Town had managed to avert the crisis in 2018, a Day Zero for water supply remains a reality in the country.

A 2020 water science article on 33 global megacities and their water problems, explains that the typical megacity has a minimum of 10 million residents. Looking at future growth, the authors point out, the 10 largest megacities of the globe – all in the developing world – have a total population of 194 million people.

Water demand in these cities far outstrip daily water losses. On average 4,7 billion cubic metres are daily lost. It means 33% of daily water supply leaks into the ground. That water can typically provide 100 million people, where all use an average of 135 litres per person per day.

Megacities are globally on the increase. Currently more than half of the global population lives in urban areas. By 2050 it will be 68% of humans on the planet. The best-developed countries will cope best with Day Zero conditions.

In the 1980s-90s water authorities in the United States, successfully reduced water leaks, despite a rapid countrywide increase in domestic consumption. Currently, Japan’s Tokyo loses a meagre 2% of its daily water supply.

Sub-Saharan Africa is currently the fastest population growth region on the planet. It’s also globally the fastest in terms of urbanisation. South Africa is intricately connected to the emergent complex process playing off in Africa.

Gauteng’s current water problems should be seen against this backdrop. South Africa’s smallest province is home to 15.8 million people. Although Johannesburg’s current population is only 5.9 million, we should see it in the same way as the management of a single regional water supplier (Rand Water) and countrywide electricity provider (Eskom).

Gauteng demographically displays features of a megacity. Failing infrastructure is part of the real-time complex dynamic system, created by rapid population growth and urban formations.

Unless there is sound planning, existing municipal governance entities will not survive. Lapses abound in municipal service delivery of electricity, water and sanitation. These remain prime challenges.

Urban Gauteng can serve as a benchmark for future megacities in provinces like North West, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape.

Governance authorities, from the local to the national level, need to systematically plan strategies to deal with local and regional Day Zero scenarios.

We know unrest is rife when service deliveries collapse. Not only do authorities fail to serve the interests of residents. They lose credibility, by ignoring the principle of equity, or basic human rights.

One consequence is community protests. It leads to the destruction of public property. People lose trust in governance authorities and local political leaders. Moreover, it leads to crime and damaged infrastructure systems that become vulnerable to plunder and theft.

Global climate change is increasing unabatedly at present. We are now heading beyond more than 1.5 degrees Celsius warming, before the end of this decade. It is the product of our ignorance of the basic guidelines of the Global Sustainable Development Goals set for 2030.

Local and regional governance authorities will have to become more focused on dealing with the real dangers, at grassroots, of the Day Zero phenomenon. Day Zero scenario planning, in collaboration with all people, is vital.

Establishing effective communications platforms with people’s support, will go a long way to help us realistically assess the mitigation of anthropogenic disaster conditions in an era of climate change and emergent megacities.

About the author: The author is an extraordinary professor in the Faculty of Humanities at North-West University’s Vanderbijlpark campus.