But there is still hope for automatic qualification.
Bafana Bafana need to win and pray this evening if they are to qualify for the 2026 Fifa World Cup finals as Group C winners.
The win part comes at home to Rwanda at Mbombela Stadium. The pray part comes in the fact that Hugo Broos’ side still need Nigeria to win at home to Benin to guarantee South Africa a ticket to the USA, Canada and Mexico.
Victory for Benin means they, and not Bafana will top Group C. Then Bafana will also have to pray – for a place among the four best runners up that will contest a four-team play-off next month.
That qualification route, however, is perilous, with the winners of that November play-off still having to play another play-off against a side from another confederation in March
There is another scenario that could see Bafana top Group C. If Nigeria and Benin draw, and Bafana beat Rwanda, it will come down to a sequence of tie-breakers between Bafana and Benin, starting with goal difference.
Currently Benin’s goal difference is +5 and Bafana’s is +3. Without wanting to get into too much detail, a 2-0 win for Bafana will probably be enough if Nigeria and Benin draw.
The best-case scenario, however, is clear – a Bafana win and a Nigeria win. Eric Chelle’s Nigeria certainly have plenty of motivation to take down their neighbours Benin. If Nigeria win and Bafana fail to win, the Super Eagles could top Group C, depending on their goal difference vis-a-vis Benin’s.
Even if Bafana do win, a victory for Nigeria looks highly likely to get them into the play-offs.
According to the latest Betway odds, the clear favourites to win both matches are Bafana and Nigeria.
Bafana are at 1.18 to win at Mbombela Stadium against Rwanda, with the visitors huge outsiders at 18.00. A draw is at 5.60.
In the Nigeria-Benin game, the Super Eagles are at 1.36, with Benin at 8.40 and a draw at 4.40.
A combined bet on both Bafana and Nigeria to win would get you low odds of 1.60. Anyone who wants to take a risk on wins for Rwanda and Benin would get more attractive odds of 151.20.
Please note that all Betway odds are correct at the time of writing and subject to change.
