Local hero a 30-1 longshot.
Emotion is normally to be avoided in wagering. Decisions should be based on logic, calculation and rationality; not friendship, empathy or patriotism.
However, South Africans will be excused if they venture a few rands on locally bred racehorse One Stripe when he runs in the Breeders’ Cup Mile in California on Saturday night/early Sunday morning.
These hopeful punters will be a small minority backing the colt in a worldwide TV audience of many millions for the Breeders’ Cup meeting at Del Mar racecourse near Los Angeles.
US bookmakers posted One Stripe as a 30-1 rank outsider in the 13-horse field for the Mile when final runners and draws were announced this week. Even SA-based books chalked him up at 33-1. In the UK, the best price on offer was 50-1.
None of this is surprising.
One Stripe is a champ back home after winning six races in nine starts in Cape Town, including two Grade 1s – the Cape Guineas and the L’Ormarins King’s Plate. But the southern tip of Africa is a tiny blip on the world’s thoroughbred radar.
The four-year-old has competed once outside South Africa, for his new US trainer Graham Motion, when he was unplaced in a small field. Supporters point out he didn’t have the best of passages that day and finished strongly. But still…
In the colt’s favour is his No 1 draw, the services of Del Mar’s top jockey Juan Hernandez and Motion’s winning Breeders’ Cup record.
The place bet market for One Stripe opened at 5.99 and will be busy as patriots face the reality of a tough task in winning against the likes of Godolphin’s Notable Speech (1.82 for the win), Coolmore’s The Lion In Winter (5.00) and Sahlan (5.00), from the stable of Arc winner Frencis-Henri Graffard.
Horses from five continents are carded for the Friday and Saturday meeting – including 58 from abroad. Runners come from Argentina, Canada, Chile, England, Ireland, France, Japan, Peru, South Africa, the US and Uruguay.
The 14 Grade 1 races carry $34-million in prize money. The headliner is the $7-million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic, raced on dirt over 2000m.
The Classic is due off at 00.25 Sunday, SA time, with One Stripe’s race following at 1:05 on Sunday.
All odds correct at time of writing and subject to change.
