Covid-19 modelling update: Third wave worst in Gauteng?
NICD projections indicate that Gauteng will be most affected by the predicted third wave.
The Covid-19 Modelling Consortium, established to project the spread of the disease to support policy and planning, warns that a third wave could hardest hit South Africa’s economic hub.
Potential drivers of the expected surge in infections across the country include the behavioural changes that have seen people grow more relaxed as memories of the second wave recede, ongoing viral mutations, seasonal factors, and the fact that the immunity of people infected in the second wave is waning.
According to the latest modelling projections by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), released on April 29, the third wave is set to hit Gauteng the hardest. This is because of the higher concentration of working-age adults and people with co-morbidities in the province.
The consortium’s report says in the absence of a new variant, the peak of the third wave is expected to be lower than the second wave. It predicts that there will be ‘substantial variation of the size of the third wave between provinces, reflective of different age distributions and prevalence of comorbidities, with the third wave being the highest in Gauteng across all scenarios’.
It warns that the ‘emergence of a highly transmissible new variant may result in a third wave of the same size as the second wave or worse, especially if the variant provides an opportunity for immune escape’.
In the absence of a new variant, daily hospital admissions for all age groups are projected to be lower in the third wave than the second, although Gauteng’s admission rate is estimated to be the highest of all provinces.
However, the consortium has warned that the third wave’s infection rate is strongly dependent on how individuals and government react to signs of a surge in new cases.
The report does not predict when the third wave will begin, but says all attempts should be made through behavioural and other changes to delay its start to allow for more vaccinations to be administered.
See the full report here.
Source: National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD)
Caxton Local Media Covid-19 reporting
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