SA is producing enough teachers but education quality is under threat

Can we avert an education crisis? Researchers are mapping the risks of a looming teacher shortage to find solutions.

To shed light on this pressing issue, Stellenbosch University’s Research on Socio-Economic Policy (Resep) group launched a three-year (2022–2024) investigation into South Africa’s teacher workforce. Backed by the Federated Mutual Employers Company and the Allan and Gill Gray Philanthropies, and in collaboration with 10 education departments, the Teacher Demographic Dividend (TDD) project delved into the country’s future teacher requirements and current realities.

They found that although many teachers will be exiting the South African education system during the next six years, local universities have been training enough young teachers to provide replacements for those on their way out.

Slower than expected

The TDD project delved into the complexities of the country’s impending teacher retirement wave, analysing data and identifying challenges and opportunities. It also sheds light on crucial issues in teacher training, recruitment, placement, and retention.

Stellenbosch University researchers and research associates at other universities considered the impact of looming teacher retirements, as many currently employed teachers are starting to approach retirement age.

Teacher attrition

To produce accurate teacher attrition figures, the project researchers employed technically appropriate modelling approaches.

Stellenbosch University says that more rudimentary modelling had previously projected teacher attrition – including retirement – to peak at 12% by 2030. The updated modelling reduced that estimate to 8%.

Prof Martin Gustafsson led the modelling work, and explains the role of TDD in informing those inside and outside of government:

“We should not think of the work in TDD as a once-off initiative. It should help to guide analysts inside and outside government on how to proceed with work that is needed on an ongoing basis: Gauging changes to the average cost of a teacher, for instance, as age distributions change; using what data we have to project future demand, which includes understanding what are often significant discrepancies between enrolment by age data and official population figures; interpreting the evolving relationship between the learner-educator ratio and class sizes.”

Teacher supply and demand

Tertiary institutions are producing more teachers than initially anticipated, which will help offset the impact of teacher retirements.

But why are so many learners in significantly oversized classes?

Despite national recommendations capping Grade 3 class sizes at 35 learners, the project revealed a concerning reality in 2017: A significant number of South African classrooms were overcrowded. Nearly 70% of these learners were in classes exceeding this limit, with a staggering 20% in classes of over 50 learners. Moreover, 6.4% of Grade 3 learners were in classes with over 60 learners.

Compounding the issue, the learner-educator ratio, a key indicator of classroom resources, has worsened over the past decade. Between 2011 and 2021, this ratio increased from 27.4 to 29.8, indicating a growing strain on teachers and a decline in individual attention for learners.

Funding

The research found that teacher appointments have also been affected by the fiscal squeeze:

“A downward trend in real basic education spending in combination with increases in enrolment has led to a decline in per learner spending in real 2024/25 rands from a peak of R27 756 in 2019/20 to R26 437 in 2022/23, a decrease of 4.8%. This reduction in real spending, which has now been confirmed as continuing over the next medium-term expenditure framework period (2025/2026–2027/2028), is putting substantial pressure on provincial education departments.”

In addition, it was found that in 2017, there was a large variation in class sizes across provinces. These large provincial differences in class sizes are not fully explained by school characteristics or resources. The research suggests that ‘even within the existing constraints, there is room to use teachers more efficiently within schools, across classrooms and subjects’.

Why teaching as a profession?

Half of the surveyed teachers were initially drawn to the profession due to job security and government bursaries. However, supplementary qualitative research revealed that ‘many teachers eventually considered their profession a calling’.

According to the project, these are issues shaping current teachers’ views of teaching as a profession:

• A perception of poor learner motivation
• Discipline
• Knowledge
• Curriculum issues
• School infrastructure

Resep group lead Prof Servaas van der Berg says the data reveals that teacher training institutions often fail to equip teachers with the necessary skills for effective classroom teaching.

In addition, he says, it has helped us to better understand the extent of large class sizes. “The current fiscal squeeze on all social delivery sectors will not help to improve class sizes as there will not be funding available to appoint more teachers,” he says, adding that conditions need to be created in which teachers, especially those with strong numeracy and reading development skills, feel valued.

Better and more teachers

The TDD project highlighted significant inconsistencies in the quality assurance standards employed by different teacher training institutions. It found that to improve the quality of newly qualified teachers, a standardised, co-ordinated approach to assessing curriculum knowledge and skills is crucial.

The project also raised concerns about the transparency and fairness of the teacher appointment process. It found the reliance on priority lists, often prioritising specific categories of candidates, may not always lead to the optimal placement of teachers, and that a more competitive process, focusing on core competencies and the specific needs of schools, could help address skill shortages, particularly in critical subjects like mathematics and reading.

In the context of the current fiscal squeeze on basic education, provincial departments of education must be supported to protect and prioritise teacher appointments, found the research. This will ensure that newly trained teachers obtain the requisite practical experience.

What does this mean

While South Africa may not face an immediate teacher shortage, the project found the quality of teacher training and the effectiveness of the appointment process remain significant challenges. By addressing these issues, such as standardising teacher training, improving the transparency of the appointment process and prioritising the appointment of qualified teachers, South Africa can enhance the quality of education.

However, the broader fiscal constraints impacting the education sector pose a significant threat to the quality of education. It is crucial to advocate for increased investment in education to ensure that class sizes remain manageable and that teachers are adequately supported.