Less load shedding good news, but Eskom will have to play catch-up on maintenance

Winter might not be as bad as was predicted because Eskom has managed to return its Energy Availability Factor (EAF) to 60% – a level last seen in September 2022.

However, that EAF is not something the power utility should be proud of.

Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said yesterday Eskom was making “marginal yet significant”, progress in implementing its power plan, which intends to improve the performance and power stations to ensure energy security.

Improvement

He attributed the reduced stages of load shedding to Eskom’s improved generation over the past week and added that demand was also lower than what was projected in Eskom’s winter plan.

“The 2nd of June was momentous in our journey to ensure we address the issue of load shedding in the country. We reached a 60% EAF. The last time we reached a 60% EAF was on 2 September 2022,” he added.

However, energy analyst Lungile Mashele said although the increased EAF was nothing to be proud of, “South Africans should be happy about it because it means less load shedding”.

“They will be able to use heaters; they won’t be in the dark for around four hours at a time as they would be in stage 6.

“But what it means for the system going forward from August and September once they start doing summer maintenance, they are going to have to play catch-up, especially on the maintenance portion of it.

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“When we started in May, the improvement in relation to the EAF was about seven percentage points.”

Addressing the virtual media briefing on the implementation of the Energy Action Plan (EAP), Ramokgopa said there had been a reduction in unplanned losses to less than 16 000MW from over 18 000MW, while planned maintenance had been reduced to about 2 500MW.

“Generation available from wind power has increased due to weather conditions in the coastal regions. Peak demand is averaging less than 29 000MW, compared with 30 000MW projected in the first week of June.

“If we can keep up energy savings from demand-side measures, we can sustain this trend and reduce the severity of load shedding. There is work that has been done by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) and this has to do with the programme that we are doing at Sere, Lethabo and Komati as there are a number of Solav PV projects taking place there.

“Eskom is to proceed with crucial programmes, including 194.5MW of solar PV at Korati, Lethabo and Sere, and 150MW of battery storage at Komati.

“The remaining determinations (including for the Load Shedding Reduction Programme and the Cross-Border Purchase Programme) are expected by the end of July 2023,” Ramokgopa said.

Combination

In a tweet, energy expert Anton Eberhard argued that there’s been speculation that recent reductions in load shedding had resulted from Eskom’s improved performance.

However, the power utility’s weekly generation availability showed “unplanned outages, as breakages are euphemistically labelled, remain stubbornly high”.

Renewable and clean energy expert Willie Cronje said the recent reductions in daytime power cuts should be attributed to days of cold weather.

“Eskom normally schedules a lot of the maintenance for the summer months so that those generators come online for the winter when we demand more.

“And I think the combination of a lot of things is working in our advantage at this moment.”

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