Iran strike: Another fuel crisis looming?

Will the history of just over 50 years ago repeat itself in the form of another Middle East oil boycott or shortage, following the US intervention in the war between Israel and Iran?

That’s the question consumers – and especially motorists – as well as experts are pondering in the wake of the weekend air strikes by American bombers of Iran’s nuclear facilities.

In 1973, the Arab-Israeli war saw the Arab-dominated Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries putting in place sharp curbs on exports. This not only forced a massive rise in fuel prices, but saw many countries in the West hit by sudden fuel shortages.

Drastic steps taken in SA during fuel shortage

In South Africa, the government took drastic steps, including lowering the national speed limit from 120km/h to 80km/h and banning fuel sales after hours and over weekends.

The trauma of that fuel shortage led directly to the then National Party government establishing a Strategic Fuel Reserve for the country.

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Economist Dawie Roodt said SA can expect some more clarity on what exactly to expect in the days to come.

“We will have to wait and see,” he said, adding it might affect petrol prices and inflation rate and weaken the rand.

“This could be quite a thing for South Africa. It just depends on how long it goes on and how serious it is,” he said.

Senior political lecturer at North-West University Dr Benjamin Rapanyane said conflicts like this one have a way of disrupting international peace and the flow of trade.

“The worst-case scenario would be the disruptions of shipments in the Strait of Hormuz. This may have a devastating impact on Africa in general and South Africa in particular,” he said.

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Political analyst Piet Croucamp said it could mean nothing or something. “Nothing in the sense of let’s stay out of it, which is hardly possible given the court case SA has against Israel,” he said. “There’s a universal condemnation of Israel for what they have been doing in Gaza and also the attack on Iran, which is against the United Nations resolutions.”

Croucamp said it might be hard for SA to stay out of it.

“So many people around the world are concerned about the consequences of what is being done to Iran, but we are also concerned about Gaza,” he said. “We dare not shut up. We have to say something. Not from a moral high ground because we cannot afford that, too, but it doesn’t mean that we don’t get to say something.”

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Political analyst Roland Henwood said there were no immediate implications.

“Indirectly, it will depend on how the situation develops. Politically, the reaction from SA, Brics and other international organisations and governments will be important to follow,” he said. “If SA reacts very strongly against America and in favour of Iran, it may have negative political consequences. Other outcomes will include the effects of increased oil prices.”

Henwood said this may have short-term or long-term implications for the country. “So far, the reactions from the rest of the world have been rather muted. We will have to see how this situation develops,” he added.