Lights on this winter: No loadshedding expected as Eskom reports 6GW surplus

Power utility Eskom is heading into the 2026 winter season with its strongest performance in years and for the first time in a long time, the outlook is genuinely good.

South Africa is going into winter with the lights on.

Eskom on Wednesday confirmed that no loadshedding is expected between 1 April and 31 August 2026, with the utility reporting a surplus of about 6 gigawatts above what the country needs.

According to the utility, this allow enough breathing room to comfortably meet demand even if things go wrong.

As of the release of this outlook, Eskom says South Africa has gone 341 consecutive days without a single loadshedding event.

The improvement comes down to fewer breakdowns.

Eskom further said that unplanned outages have been cut by 5.2GW.

Even under worst-case planning scenarios, where breakdowns spike to 14GW, the utility says the system should hold with no loadshedding anticipated.

How we got here

Three years ago, Eskom’s generation fleet was in crisis. Today, the numbers tell a different story.

Eskom reported that its Energy Availability Factor, the measure of how much of the power fleet is reliably generating electricity, has climbed from 54.55% in FY2023 to approximately 65.35% in FY2026, hitting or exceeding 70% on more than 83 occasions during the past financial year alone.

Group CEO Dan Marokane says the utility has moved from survival mode into a genuine growth phase.

“Eskom and in turn South Africa, now has a stable electricity platform to operate and grow from. This enables us to integrate renewable energy sources as per the 2025 Integrated Resource Plan for the maintenance of energy security in the future.”

One of the clearest signs of progress, according to Eskom, is how little emergency diesel power is being used.

Diesel costs have dropped by R26.9 billion compared to FY2023, coming in at around R6.4 billion in FY2026, roughly R10 billion less than the year before.

Group executive for generation Bheki Nxumalo said the savings only became possible once the fleet stabilised.

“It was very difficult to embed cost savings when our generation fleet was unstable. Today, we have dramatically reduced diesel dependency and saved R26.9 billion compared to FY2023. Every megawatt we return contributes to economic growth.”

Eskom also notes that the financial recovery has caught the attention of ratings agencies, with Standard & Poor’s upgrading its credit rating for the first time in over a decade.

What this means for households and businesses

Eskom says it connected 67 578 new households during FY2026, with a further 2 119 supplied through smaller, distributed energy sources.

Despite a growing customer base, the utility says improved reliability and reduced breakdowns are more than enough to cover the extra demand this winter.

According to Eskom, more than 340 000 customers who previously faced load reduction, the community-level power cuts separate from national loadshedding, are no longer experiencing it.

The Northern Cape and Western Cape have been fully removed from load reduction schedules. Eskom expects 60% of affected feeders, 573 out of 971, to be cleared by September 2026, with the rest resolved by 2027.

The road ahead

Despite the good news, Eskom is open about the risks on the horizon.

The utility warns that a supply crunch between 2029 and 2030 is possible if new generation capacity is not built fast enough, with approximately 10.3GW of solar, 7.4GW of wind, 3.7GW of storage and 6GW of gas needed online by 2030.

Eskom also flags that since 2019, only about half of awarded renewable energy projects have actually been built. a coordination problem the utility says needs urgent attention.

Nxumalo summed up what the recovery means for ordinary South Africans.

“The country has invested in Eskom and we are continuously working to restore this national asset to full health; it is a resource that all citizens have supported.”

For now, South Africans can plug in, switch on and head into winter without watching the loadshedding schedule.

Watch: Eskom briefs the media on its 2026 winter outlook