Covid-19 is Trump’s weak link

American voters are concerned more about their internal affairs and less about what happens outside their borders – and that is what they expect their president to address.

This raises the question: will the voters punish President Donald Trump for his negligent stance towards the coronavirus? With Joe Biden in the lead as of yesterday afternoon, the final outcome of next month’s election is still anyone’s guess, as he and Trump make their way through the swing states.

US voters are not gullible, nor do they blow with the wind at any given moment; what matters to them are what affects their lives. If either the Republicans (Trump) or the Democrats (Biden) produced a convincing case about their domestic situation, they would be guaranteed votes.

That is a point made clear by political analyst Akram R Elias of the Capital Communications Group Inc, an international consultancy, who confirmed to a group of foreign journalists attending the virtual 2020 US presidential election seminar: “The Americans’ interest is in domestic affairs, such as education, health and what was close to them. These were issues really matter to them.”

This meant that Trump’s now customary attacks against China and his moves to get Sudan and other Arab nations to normalise their relations with Israel are not what would get him votes. But Covid-19 had added a new dimension to the US presidential elections and could prove tricky to navigate.

Trump sidelined Obama Care (the Affordable Care Act) but according to experts, provided no alternative. Now on the most important matter that affects American citizens, Covid-19, he continued to be a rebel and ignorant, with a muted message that “you don’t have to wear a mask”.

While adamant that “we are rounding the corner” on the virus, he continued to ignore scientists’ guidelines on wearing a mask and observing social distancing, key aspects to preventing transmission. However, Trump, who had and recovered from the virus, remained optimistic that his administration would control the pandemic, an assertion his close aide disagreed with.

Vice-president Mike Pence refused to quarantine, despite five members of his staff testing positive for Covid-19. Pence and his wife tested negative and were advised to wear masks. Trump’s presidential challenger Joe Biden not only observed the requirements to prevent the virus spreading, he unveiled a comprehensive plan to fight it and pledged free vaccine to all, should he be elected.

Both Biden and his running mate, Kamala Harris, campaigned wearing masks and insisted their supporters wear masks and maintained social distancing. On the question of race, Trump was defensive, saying he was the least racist person. But he has been criticising the protests of the #BlackLivesMatter movement, while Biden supports it and opposes police brutality against black people.

The two candidates follow the exact opposite directions on any matter. They accused each other of being weak on immigration policy. Biden accused Trump of separating families and caging children on borders but the incumbent hit back, saying he had inherited the cages from the Democrats under Barack Obama – which is a fact.

Trump insisted that Biden was corrupt – an accusation that has haunted Biden for allegedly advocating for a Ukrainian prosecutor, who investigated an oil firm where his son worked, to be fired. Biden denied the affair and Russian President Vladimir Putin commented that there was nothing criminal about the Hunter Biden matter in the Ukraine.

However, Trump is a man of electoral surprises. While everybody expected the business tycoon to be beaten by Hillary Clinton in 2016 after losing the popular vote, he emerged triumphant – thanks to a complicated electoral college system. He returned Wisconsin to the Republicans – they had last won that state in 1984 – and obtained the widest margin in Ohio since 1988.

Ohio is regarded a backyard playground of the Democrats and is one of the swing states. He also won Florida, a US “retirement state”. In fact, no previous Republican had become president without Florida on their side and since 1964, Florida had voted for the presidential election winner, except in 1992.

With a population of 328.2 million in 2019, experts say, the result of the next census could favour Trump because they could increase his college votes. The no-excuse mail-in votes had already been closed but historically they had never indicated which party would win the final.

The real determinant for the outcome remained the swing states – Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – also called “purple states” or “battleground”. A minimum 270 of the total 538 electoral votes are needed to win the election. The six swing states hold 101 electoral votes and were the 2020 election battle zone.

Ohio is another battleground for candidates and always produced tight margins. Trump beat Clinton by 49.0% to 47.8%, a 1.2% difference in 2016. America has had 8.7 million coronavirus cases and 225,000 deaths reported – and increasing. Texas alone had recorded at least 900,000 cases and more than 18,000 deaths.

Trump would obviously attract the votes from the conservatives and the right-wingers, while the left and liberals would go for Biden. But it all depend on what the voters believed on the issues promised by each candidate. Trump has some “surrogates”, who lobby the minority voters, including African-Americans and religious groups. But with the George Floyd incident still fresh in the African Americans’ minds, this would be a difficult task.

The cross-racial unity among Americans around #BlackLivesMatter, especially young white voters, could help Biden bring more white voters outside the low income earners. He is a favourite among African-Americans, Hispanics, Asians and whites without a college degree.

But there had been an equal rise of white and blue-collar workers and senior citizens towards the Republican party. These are even more pronounced in the significant swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, giving Trump an advantage in those electoral colleges.

Turning 78 on 20 November, Biden would become the oldest US president in history if elected, while Trump, at 74 is the second-oldest nominee. As Americans go to the polls on 3 November, do they deserve another four years of Trump or a new order under Biden, something that would be determined by their own votes?

– ericn@citizen.co.za

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