Trump’s tariff ultimatum catches EU off guard

The EU was shocked by Trump's threat to impose 30% tariffs unless a trade deal is finalised by 1 August.


Throughout the week leading up to US President Donald Trump’s 30 percent-tariff threat on the EU, European officials and diplomats insisted they were closing in on a deal — right up until his letter landed at the weekend.

They privately described the outlines of an accord, showered top EU negotiator Maros Sefcovic with praise for his “remarkable” work and dismissed the prospect of a new US ultimatum short-circuiting those efforts.

Trump’s letter derails quiet optimism

But hopes of a swift deal came crashing down on Saturday as Trump publicly threatened the EU with levies three times the current level if there is no deal by August 1 — after sending similar missives to other countries.

The United States had notified the European Commission, in charge of trade policy for the 27-country bloc, as well the EU’s biggest economies a day earlier of the new tariff threat — but for others it dealt an unexpected blow.

Mixed signals from Washington sow confusion

The commission appeared sanguine last week about the advancement of talks: the thinking went that Trump would keep a 10-percent baseline tariff on EU goods — with exemptions for critical sectors like airplanes — under an “agreement in principle” to be fleshed out later.

“I was rather surprised, of course, because during the week we had quite a positive mood about getting the framework agreement done,” Finland’s trade minister Ville Tavio said.

But he said, “the US has been rather spontaneous about their announcements”, speaking before he and his EU counterparts discussed their strategy going forward in Brussels.

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Others including Hungary appear to have learned of the letter via Trump’s post.

But Hungary’s deputy trade minister, Levente Magyar, said he was not surprised “because President Trump’s been sending out these letters to all of his major counterparts”.

EU’s hope for deal

Last week as Trump unveiled higher tariffs for Japan, South Korea and a dozen other countries ranging from 25 percent to 40 percent, the EU seemed to keep its cool.

“My understanding is that we are not going to receive a letter,” EU trade spokesman Olof Gill told reporters on Wednesday.

As late as Friday, Gill said the EU was “fully locked and loaded to conclude” a deal, adding: “Let’s see what happens when our friends in Washington wake up in a few hours.”

Can talks be salvaged before August 1?

There appeared to be some confusion brought about by US officials telling their EU counterparts there would be no letter, while others said a draft deal was on Trump’s table for approval.

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In fact, there was a growing sense that the EU and the United States would announce a deal at the weekend and then thrash out the details until the August 1 deadline when US levies would snap back in.

Trump initially threatened 20-percent tariffs — and at one point even 50 percent — on a majority of EU goods before he suspended them to allow for negotiations.

It was not yet clear whether his new threat would be a game-changer in negotiations, beyond dialling up pressure.

And EU ministers made clear on Monday they are still hopeful the bloc can clinch a deal by August 1, as they huddled to consider how much Brussels should flex its muscles when talks resume.

The discreet Sefcovic remained hopeful, telling reporters he intended to speak to his US counterparts later on Monday.

“We continue to engage with the United States administration and prioritise negotiated solutions by the new deadline of August 1,” he said.

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