EFF fails, centre stands firm

Not since his matric report card was published 15 years ago has Julius Malema faced such humiliation.

His attempt to achieve a nationwide shutdown was more feeble than the H in maths and G in woodwork which made headlines in 2008.

He achieved great publicity.

Much of the hype around the EFF’s supposed shutdown was generated by click-bait journalism, which thrives on outrageous comments by controversial personalities. TV stations added to the perceptions by repeatedly using “national shutdown” as a headline or strapline, alongside EFF-related images.

So the supposed shutdown was a successful publicity stunt.

But for Malema and the EFF, publicity does not translate into votes. He’s been headline-grabbing for years but the EFF have consistently failed to break the 11% threshold. They achieved 10.8% in the 2019 national election and 10.6% in the 2021 local elections.

Their brand of radical politics and boorish behaviour has limited appeal in South Africa, even when most of us are gatvol. Malema tried to achieve through threats and theatrics what he cannot achieve through elections.

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If Monday was his best shot at rallying support, it was a flop. He misread the national mood and the resolve of his nemesis, President Cyril Ramaphosa, to hold a firm line. Amid calls for his resignation, Ramaphosa boosted his own standing by galvanising the security establishment to be far more effective than they were during the July 2021 insurrection.

Suddenly, we had visible policing en masse. In addition, business and most major unions did not support the shutdown.

As Patrick Bulger writes in a business publication: “The shutdown has separated the builders from the demolishers, and in doing so has shown us the outline of a grouping of moderate South Africans who understand pointless street politics will not provide growth and jobs and attract the investment we desperately need.”

Malema and his supporters wax hysterical in asserting the success of the shutdown, even using six-year-old photographs of turnout size. But failure is obvious.

Any claimed stayaway figures must be balanced by an assessment of how many people took Monday off because it fell between a public holiday and a weekend. Many businesses, schools and other organisations were closed for a long weekend.

ALSO READ: EFF’s national shutdown a farce, party just wants to be seen as busy

Malema’s shutdown failure has implications at municipal, provincial and national level.

At the instigation of Paul Mashatile (before he became deputy president) and Panyaza Lesufi (from before he became Gauteng premier) the EFF has been involved in efforts to co-govern Gauteng metros with the ANC.

Ramaphosa is not keen on these arrangements. The EFF have been campaigning against Ramaphosa and others, such as ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula. They have not been campaigning against the ANC, with whom they want to partner.

Monday’s events have strengthened Ramaphosa against not only Malema, but also against the EFF leader’s allies in the ANC, including Mashatile and Lesufi.

There’s no telling how the 2024 national and provincial elections will unfold. But if we are witnessing the “outline of a grouping of moderate South Africans”, there will be significant realignments.

Radical demagogues can be put in their place if a large enough moderate grouping takes centre stage.