Optimistic outlook: Winter crop projections surge after floods

Comprehensive data about SA’s winter crop conditions have been issued for the first time since the devastating floods in the Western Cape in September.

The province is a significant producer of winter crops, accounting for about two-thirds of SA’s output.

The data paints a comforting picture. In its third production estimate for winter crops, the crop estimates committee lifted the wheat harvest projection by two percent from September to 2.17-million tons.

The current expected crop is up three percent from the previous season.

This was a positive surprise as we had expected the crop size could be lowered, considering the severity of the floods in the southern regions of the Western Cape.

ALSO READ: Farmers to keep an eye El Niño as crop production season edges closer

Behind this robust national wheat harvest forecast are the Western Cape (53% of the overall harvest), Northern Cape, Free State and Limpopo.

The expected large harvest in the Western Cape and Limpopo overshadows the decline in other provinces. There are also likely to be decent wheat harvests in other provinces, such as KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape and North West.

Notably, the expected 2.17 million tons is well above the 10-year average of 1.8 million tons.

If there are no significant changes in the forecast in the coming months, one can be confident that SA would need to import only about 1.6 million tons to meet domestic consumption in the 2023-24 season, down from 1.7 million tons in 2022-23.

Concerns remain about the quality of the crop, which means the expected import figure may need to be revised. The available data shows the harvest is in good shape and the floods had minimal impact on the winter crops.

ALSO READ: There’s more to the Karoo than wool