Supporters of Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa wave a political poster during the final rally of Zanu-PF ahead of the Zimbabwe elections. Picture: Getty Images
More jobs and increased trade – that’s the promise for South Africa of the election results in Zimbabwe. But whatever happens, don’t expect a mass exodus of Zimbabwe nationals heading home from South Africa.
Steven Gruzd, head of governance and diplomacy programme at the SA Institute of International Affairs in Johannesburg, said the two economies have been closely intertwined since colonial times.
“Zimbabwe’s retail sector imports thousands of products from South Africa every day,” he said. “Many South African companies – in retail, mining, services – operate in Zimbabwe and have been struggling to repatriate profits due to the dire foreign currency shortage crisis.”
“If Zimbabwe recovers, it creates jobs and therefore demands for goods and services from South Africa. Zimbabwe, if it regains international support, could modernise its manufacturing sector relatively quickly – many of these partners stand to be South African.”
Zimbabwe is one of South Africa’s biggest trading partners in the region and hundreds of thousands of its citizens are living in South Africa.
“We can only benefit from Zimbabwe recovering economically,” Gruzd said.
Both President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Nelson Chamisa, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change Alliance, are promising profound change but whoever wins faces a mammoth task to rebuild the economically depressed country.
Whoever wins, it is unlikely there will be an immediate mass exodus of immigrants living in South Africa returning home.
“[Zimbabwe nationals] have their lives here, it’s difficult to uproot that overnight,” said Gruzd. “Some may go back, but many won’t.”
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