Will ANC in KZN humble itself for the sake of stability, service delivery?

Political stability in KwaZulu-Natal will depend on whether the ruling party eats humble pie or allows factional battles to further detract from the business of service delivery and peaceful democracy say analysts.

The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), ActionSA and other parties have weakened the ANC in the province by over 10%.

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The ANC’s majority in the province shrunk to 41.4% of the vote, with the IFP coming in second with 24.3% on Thursday evening. The DA came in third at 12.81 %.

This means the ANC will not be able to rule without a coalition. The province stands at 21 hung councils and 23 controlled councils following the announcement of the final results on Thursday evening. The 2011 local government election resulted in 19 hung municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal.

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Good for democracy, but worrying for stability

The “surprising”, positive result for the IFP as well as the higher-than-expected voter turnout in the province paints an electorate that as grown weary of the ANC, says Narnia Bohler-Muller, a divisional executive at the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC).

More than ever before, voters have pinned their hopes on a wider variety of political parties.

But given the historical significance of the IFP regaining strongholds in the region following a violent past between itself and the ANC in the 1990s, the new landscape may not bode well for stability.

“As for stability, I am not sure that the IFP having more power in KZN given its history with the ANC could necessarily be a good thing, although it is good for democracy. It is a little bit concerning,” says Bohler-Muller.

“Our recent research into the state of democracy showed that trust in democracy was the lowest in the country in KZN, scoring under 10%. It’s interesting that the voter turnout wasn’t as low as predicted because of the disillusionment that people had demonstrated during our research.”

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Stable coalitions needed

According to Sethulego Matebesi, senior sociology lecturer at the University of the Free State, the ANC is likely to work with other parties than the IFP. He reckons should they form a stable coalition, this may lead to more political stability.

“A coalition between the IFP and the ANC may lead to more tolerant relations between the supporters of the party. However, the parties will need to ensure that they resolve their differences amicably in a province that is prone to political intolerance,” says Matebesi.

But political analyst Bheki Mnomezulu told the SABC on Thursday afternoon the relationship between ANC and IFP was more nuanced than an outright rivalry. He believes the two parties have been seen as rivals because of an expectation and portrayal of such created by the media.

He predicts the two parties most likely to work together in KZN are, in fact, the ANC and the IFP.

The top winning parties in the province have not indicated which parties they were in talks with for possible coalitions. The ANC has indicated it will avoid working with political parties with whom coalitions have ended unfavourably in the past.

To avoid political and administrative instability, the party says will consider an approach with “like-minded” parties. It plans to employ the principle that the party which receives the most votes in a given election, should be afforded the first opportunity to form a coalition government.

simnikiweh@citizen.co.za