Eskom – Total grid collapse unlikely, but not entirely out of the question

With stage six load shedding currently in full swing, experts have warned of total pandemonium and life as we know it coming to a screeching halt if the country was to be plunged into total blackout or grid collapse.

Amid the continued deterioration of conditions at state power utility Eskom, the risk of this catastrophe happening could become very real, unless there are urgent and impactful interventions, according to experts in the energy field.

This week Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan, who attributed the current stage six load shedding to the work of saboteurs, hinted on what could happen if the tampering and interfering with infrastructure continued.

“…for social contract, certainly we should agree, whether we are in union, business, Eskom staff or concerned citizens, we should not interfere with important entities like Eskom which are the lifeblood of the economy… So electricity and the lack of it can cause a huge amount of damage,” Gordhan has warned.

Catastrophe

Nicolaas Esterhuysen, the University of Free State’s Director of Engineering Services, said a total blackout is unthinkable, and could spell catastrophe for all facets of life in SA.

He said there would be no means of communications, nor transportation because power is used to pump fuel. There would also be no water as there would be no waste water treatment, while those dependent on home oxygen machines would die due to a lack of sufficient back up to last until the grid is restored.

“A total blackout would be a catastrophic event, should it happen to SA,” Esterhuysen warned.

He explained, however, that a blackout was normally classified as high impact event, and the probability of it happening was extremely low.

Esterhuysen explained that the probability of this happening has increased, but said various systems were in place to mitigate such a risk.

One of those is the manual load shedding, which South Africans have become all too familiar with, and other automatic protection systems (such as UFLS – under frequency load shedding) were also in place.

“…but I think the public has lost confidence in Eskom to properly maintain such systems. Overall I think, we are not close to a total black out, but Eskom needs to regain the trust of the public to ensure these critical system are well taken care off,” Esterhuysen said.

He said sabotage was part of the rot inside Eskom, saying whether it was employees sabotaging infrastructure to give work to their friends – mostly emergency work, bypassing procurement guidelines and assigning work to contractors for kickbacks – or employees engaged in the wage dispute is unclear.

Esterhuysen added that a firm stance will have to be taken to eliminate that criminal component from inside the workforce.

Support Eskom to avoid crisis

Energy expert Bertha Dlamini echoed Esterhuysen’s sentiments, saying Eskom is facing complex operational challenges and that these are compounded by the recent strike action.

She, however, said it would be ill-informed to predict a complete grid collapse, as the latest developments indicated that Eskom was working with relevant stakeholders to resolve the labour disputes.

“It will be prudent for citizens to explore and find ways to curtail their electricity demand and consumption. This includes finding affordable solar solutions and energy storage solutions. Various banks have created credit facilities for domestic customers. This will be a good investment for property owners,” Dlamini said.

She said the allegations of sabotage was very serious and disturbing allegations, and if such allegations are found to be true, it is hoped that Eskom would be diligent in working with the relevant law enforcement authorities to unravel any secondary criminal economy that has entangled its operations.

“We believe that public and private sector stakeholders, including civil society, are willing to support Eskom in its endeavors to uproot criminal activity across its value chains,” Dlamini said.

She said Eskom plays a pivotal role in providing much-needed electricity to the economy and that it is in South Africa’s best interest to support Eskom in all its endeavours to restore optimal functionality of its operations.

• siphom@citizen.co.za