SA spent 9% of 2020 without power, thanks to load shedding

In 2020, load shedding occurred for 859 hours of the year, apparently the most yet, a report by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has revealed.

The report, titled Statistics of utility-scale power generation in South Africa in 2020, also said that electricity demand reduced noticeably in 2020 due to the Covid-19 lockdown and resulting reduced economic activity.

The country experienced Stage 2 load shedding for most of these hours, with smaller contributions from other load shedding stages.

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The report revealed that 63% of the load shedding took place in the weeks leading up to the implementation of the nationwide lockdown in March.

Load shedding assumed to have taken place for the full hours in which it was implemented.  Sources: Eskom Twitter account; Eskom se Push (mobile app); Nersa; CSIR analysis

Lockdown impacted load shedding

The lockdown in South Africa had a significant impact on electricity demand, says the report, adding that peak demand dropped from the expected 31.2GW to 27.4GW, while minimum demand dropped to 13.8GW under Level 5.

Under Level 4, the peak demand dropped from an expected 33.6GW to 30.7GW, with the morning peak having shifted notably.

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Under Level 3, the demand returned to “normal’ in scale with load shedding returning, while under Level 2 of lockdown, the demand went back to “normal”, with load shedding returning.

Under Level 1 of lockdown, no load shedding was implemented.

Electricity demand over the past 10 years has fallen by 7.8% (mostly seen in 2020) but even without the effects of 2020, system demand has been on a downward trend, reads the report.

The CSIR report painted a grim picture of the Eskom generating system, with its fleet EAF (Energy Availability Factor) on a declining trend. This drove load shedding in 2020.

The power utility’s fleet annual average EAF was 65%, compared to 66.9% in 2019 and 71.9% in 2018.

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Load shedding in 2021

The power utility has implemented load shedding at least six times in 2021, with most of the load shedding being Stage 2.

According to energy expert Chris Yelland, Eskom is on Code Red for the next six weeks as the national electricity system remains vulnerable.

“It really is expected, Eskom has been giving the message, loud and clear, it will be load shedding for at least next two years.

“This year as the economy picks up we don’t have that saving grace. If you look at Eskom’s website with predictions, it is Code Red for the next six weeks,” he told eNCA on Monday.

On Sunday, the power utility extended Stage 2 load shedding to Wednesday morning due to the generation capacity still being severely constrained.

The power utility suffered breakdowns at five power stations – Tutuka, Majuba, Kusile, Matimba and Duvha – at the weekend.

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