Load shedding: Expect billions more in hidden costs due to infrastructure damage

Eskom’s transmission and distribution infrastructure could face costly deterioration over the next year and a half, with load shedding expected to have a massive and costly impact on the network.

An impact study would be crucial in determining whether the grid infrastructure, including power lines, transformers and sub-stations would be able to weather the damaging on-and-off surge of current during the planned power cuts, warns industry analyst Ted Blom.

This is because the power cuts require a surge of almost three times more electricity than usual to run through Eskom’s aging infrastructure, which it was never designed for.

According to DA Member of the Provincial Legislature Nico de Jager, a study looking into the impact of four months of intermittent load-shedding on Johannesburg power utility City Power is a microcosm of the potentially devastating impact regular and irregular power cuts would have on all power infrastructure over time, as well as the possible costs.

De Jager, who was the MMC for environmental and infrastructure services in the previous administration, says the study looked at the financial impact on City Power between 16 October 2019 and 5 January 2020, due to intermittent load shedding during that period. For equipment failures alone, the estimated loss to the city was R14m out of the total of R58 million which the utility lost during that period.

“All you have to think about is that an Eskom cable can carry a load of x and it gets to the mini-substations it must carry x and y, which changes as people switch on appliances. Now when there is load-shedding, you then have a sudden rush of wire requests that melt those cables and ultimately kill that infrastructure. The starting current will be three times more than that line is designed to handle. You can have up to 240 kilovolts on a line that was designed to only handle 80 kilovolts.”

City Power alone has lost millions in equipment which failed during power restoration, including transformers and mini-substations that exploded during current surges.

According to Blom, a study should have been conducted “a long time ago” and it was only a matter of time before transformers would begin blowing up, switch gears burning out, and an ultimate total grid failure. No study had been conducted to measure the cost of repairing the expected damage over time, he pointed out.

Chairperson of the Standing Committee on Public Accounts Mkhuleko Hlengwa said Eskom had yet to brief parliament on the potential cost of the damage which could accumulate over the planned 18-month period of load shedding.

“All that has happened for now is they have given us the schedule for the projected load-shedding and maintenance projects in that plan. In the next committee meeting, which will be in the next term in April, we will be discussing the 2018/2019 financial report and in that engagement, we expect that those issues such as the cost and impact of the load shedding will be discussed as well.”

According to managing director of EE Business Intelligence, Chris Yelland, even well-maintained equipment that is in reasonably good shape is not designed to be switched on and off several times a day for two years. A study into what kind of impact this would have over time would be helpful in informing decisions about this undertaking, he adds.

“The switching on and off on the switch-gear and the transformer is not something that should be happening multiple times a day. The equipment was never designed for that, so if you are doing it over two years, certainly a lot of wear and tear on the switch-gear and transformers can be expected, as well as reduced reliability of the equipment,” he warns.

This is because Eskom’s infrastucture is already long overdue for maintenance and replacement, and is vulnerable.

According to Blom, much of the R500 billion which was budgeted towards the plan to upgrade and renew Eskom’s antiquated transmission grid has been deferred towards new build projects and its skyrocketing maintenance bill. He says the nearly two years of load shedding to come would likely reduce the old infrastructure’s lifespan by 50%.

Independent energy analyst Tsepho Kgadima says the record rolling blackouts planned over the next 18 months put Eskom and the country between a rock and hard place, because while the planned maintenance was necessary to save Eskom’s aging infrastructure, the load shedding was also harmful to the grid.

“The only way to mitigate the damage is to make sure that energy availability in the country does not get below 80% because if we don’t and with the damage to the equipment, we could end up having a total blackout,” said Kgadima.

“The effect of a total blackout is too drastic to contemplate, it would take at least three weeks to get the system up and running and we only have two days worth of fuel reserves available. It would be total chaos and anarchy.”

As stage 4 load shedding continues this week, DA interim leader John Steenhuisen has introduced a new plan the opposition party wanted implemented to reduce customers’ reliance on Eskom.

The party has written into its 2020/21 national budget proposal incentives for homeowners to install solar systems by offering up to R75,000 in a tax rebate for every home. The party also called for zero-rating of VAT on LED lightbulbs and energy-efficient appliances.

Simnikiweh@citizen.co.za

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