Coalition politics: Some parties need perpetual instability to remain relevant

Coalition governance has been under the spotlight in recent months, with many questioning whether South African politicians are mature enough to put their differences aside and govern with the best interests of voters at heart.

There was hope that having multi-party governance would benefit the country and South Africans, essentially making sure that service delivery is improved as coalition partners keep each other in check.

However, there is still doubt – particularly in recent weeks – about whether the system is yielding the desired positive results to benefit ordinary citizens.

Fragile partnerships and clashes derail delivery

According to political analyst, Sanusha Naidu, coalition arrangements are fragile and all about political posturing.

She describes these kinds of arrangements as conflictual, and at the mercy of partners’ whims.

“It is easy for different parties to come together and form a coalition, but it is also easy to fragment, so there is no guarantee that they can work.

Also Read: PODCAST: The future of government in South Africa is coalitions

“So, you go into a coalition with the idea of trying to keep the ANC out, but what about issues of governance?” Naidu asked.

Examples of what Naidu is referring to could be seen recently, when Vasco Da Gama (speaker in the City of Johannesburg) was ousted through a motion of no confidence.

Meanwhile, it appears the Johannesburg mayor Mpho Phalatse’s future is also hanging in the balance amid talks of another motion of no confidence against her on the cards.

The ANC in the city have reportedly said they are prepared to support any motion of no confidence against Phalatse.

There have also been allegations of buying votes levelled against the African National Congress (ANC), something they have denied.

ALSO READ: Minority parties gun for Joburg mayor Mpho Phalatse in motion of no confidence

ANC waking up to possible 2024 reality

Naidu said the ANC is now also beginning to realise that they might have an “extended family”, in the form of coalition partners post the 2024 polls, hence the disruptions that have been witnessed at the City of Tshwane, City of Johannesburg, and in the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality.

She said the numbers in terms of votes will be critical for the ANC.

In elections held in recent years, the ANC’s support base continued to decline, while many voters simply decided to stay away from the polls.

Naidu says this shows the inherent frustration of some South Africans who choose to switch off from politics.

“In fact, communities have become more and more self-reliant where you see some filling their own potholes because they feel government has checked out, and in taking matters into their own hands, they are also checking out,” she said.

Naidu says the sense she is getting from the few people she has engaged with, suggests that they are fed up and feel betrayed.

Stability is a dirty word for some parties

Another political analyst, Prof Andre Duvenhage, says non-consolidated democratic processes which include forces within society, such as the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the ANC, lie behind the levels of instability witnessed at some of the metros and municipalities.

ALSO READ: ‘ANC, EFF want their hands on Gauteng metros’: Joburg coalition unhappy over Vasco da Gama outcome

“They don’t want stability and they would like to function in this environment while mobilising,” he said.

“Another element to this is the electoral system and the huge diversity of political parties, the lack of social cohesion in our society with identity politics being very prominent, for instance race, culture, gender and class and the results are patterns of instability.”

COALITION ON A NATIONAL LEVEL

Duvenhage is of the opinion that the ANC will do everything in their power not to lose power, warning that they might follow the same line as seen in the neighbouring Zimbabwe.

“So, coalition politics in essence is going to bring us more instability and it may contribute to elements of dysfunctionality,” Duvenhage said.

“The positive, however, is that it is forcing people to work together, to find solutions in a common way, and if we want to consolidate our democracy, we must strive to understand each other. We need a lot of Codesas throughout South Africa.”

A LOT DEPENDS ON THE OUTCOMES OF THE ANC ELECTIVE CONFERENCE

Duvenhage said there is something to be read in the ANC’s announcement this week, that the nomination process for the party’s elective conference, which was scheduled to officially open on Wednesday, was postponed.

ALSO READ: ANC postpones nomination process for national leaders

“Already I am picking up huge problems, I have read articles about the NPA, the prosecution of politicians… So, I think there are huge concerns in many areas at the moment but let’s take a hypothetical scenario. If the ANC get below 50%, I see an environment of instability and this is when the ANC will need to decide who to work with.

“I am expecting the ANC to operate mostly with the EFF and that may be their solution of going on with populist policies and creating patterns of conflict. But we also know the EFF, when they are not getting what they want, they disrupt the processes as we have seen in Nelson Mandela, Johannesburg, and in other parts of the country,” Duvenhage added.

Political analyst, Ongama Mtimka said the last three decades of democratic political life in South Africa have largely been under a majority party system in terms of which political offices gave leaders plenty of unfettered power to control things and dispense patronage.

“Coalition governments do not come with as much power to individuals or a party, but the culture and attitude of politicians hasn’t changed as quick enough to accept that reality.

“As such you have perpetual conflict,” Mtimka added.