Ace has his back to the wall – analyst

Even if ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule were to dare the ANC to expel him or to consider establishing a splinter group, he must know he wouldn’t survive politically, so he must stay and fight back.

Many in the ANC believe it would be a good thing if he jumped ship or was pushed. They can’t wait to see his back but still maintain he must be given enough rope to hang himself – he would be playing with fire if he defied the 30-day step-aside ultimatum.

According to political analyst Professor Dirk Kotze from the University of South Africa, Magashule would “stay, hoping the case against him will collapse so he could use it to launch a big comeback … use it to say there was a witch-hunt against him to victimise him”.

ALSO READ: ‘Tennis ball’ Ace: Mbeki up next on Magashule consultation tour

Kotze said Magashule might only resign if he was found guilty. But he highlighted the ANC often returned convicted criminals to its fold after they had served their time – such as national executive committee member Tony Yengeni, who was convicted in connection with arms deal bribery but had since become active in ANC structures.

“This is one of the ANC’s weak points – to believe that because one has paid his dues in jail, he must return to work in the party. “What about the public perception about the person, who still has a criminal record?” Kotze asked.

University of the Free State head of sociology Professor Sethulego Matebesi recently told Saturday Citizen Magashule was not a threat to the ANC because his support was limited.

His leadership strength was insignificant because supporters were scattered in small pockets all over the country.

Matebesi said even in the Free State, Magashule’s home province where he led the ANC for many years, his support was not solid because the party was divided between those for and those against the Magashule/Jacob Zuma nexus.

He said the recent court ruling to nullify the last Free State provincial conference, in which Magashule supporters dominated, had weakened his support base.

ANC national spokesman Pule Mabe, after being reminded by a colleague about ignoring our query, promised to respond but had failed to do so at time of going to print.

Kotze predicted the sentiment within the ANC was going more and more against Magashule. He said statements by ANC deputy secretary-general Jessie Duarte denouncing Magashule’s refusal to step aside was an indication of this.

“[Duarte] presented a view showing she is not on his side or any side, but speaking her mind. “She does take her own position on issues. To her credit, Duarte is consistent in her views,” Kotze said.

Duarte had always avoided associating herself explicitly with any faction. The fact she had been in her position longer than Magashule made her understand the significance of being nonaligned.

“She presents herself as someone who is in the middle or not aligned to anyone – neither [President Cyril] Ramaphosa nor Zuma, so she is difficult to associate with any group.

“She sees herself as someone elected to implement ANC policy decisions and I think she is relatively in a safe space,” Kotze said.

Even after meeting Zuma at his Nkandla home on Thursday, Magashule denied he would establish a breakaway party.

Besides Zuma, he was also scheduled to meet former ANC leaders Mathews Phosa, Kgalema Motlanthe and Thabo Mbeki.

He has already met Phosa and Zuma and it is expected Phosa, Motlanthe and Mbeki would direct him to obey ANC orders. As Zuma had his own axe to grind against the current Ramaphosa-led ANC leadership, it is predicted that he would encourage Magashule to defy the party order.

Kotze said Magashule knew there was no political life for him outside the ANC, so he would prefer to remain in the party.

History had proven ANC breakaway parties failed, including Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters, Mosiuoa Lekota’s Congress of the People, the African Independent Congress and even the Pan Africanist Congress of Azania, the oldest splinter group.

ericn@citizen.co.za