At its weakest since 1994, the ANC now governs alongside other political parties.
The ANC celebrates its 114th birthday in the North West this week, but political analyst Andre Duvenhage says the party has nothing to celebrate.
The ANC’s main celebration will take place at the Moruleng Stadium on Saturday,10 January, but this event will be preceded by other activities that form part of the party’s celebrations.
Duvenhage told The Citizen on Monday that he expects President Cyril Ramaphosa to use his main January 8 Statement speech to downplay the challenges facing the country and his party.
“The current state of the ANC is the weakest since 1994, with the worst and biggest challenges in the history of the organisation.
“This organisation is in a crisis, a crisis of ideology and transformation that is not working. The economy is not growing, unemployment is at its highest, and inequality is at its highest, so the ANC is not delivering in major performance areas.
“Crime and corruption are rampant. The revelations by Lieutenant-General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi also reveal that the ANC is at the heart of a criminal state. The ANC is even struggling financially, and even at an international level, the country is not having a good time, not only from the Americans but from other sides,” he said.
Traditionally, the ANC’s president would use the January 8 statement to set the tone for the party’s year. But Duvenhage said that, with all the ANC’s problems, he does not expect Ramaphosa to deviate from the usual rhetoric he uses at major ANC events.
“They cannot say anything they have not said in the past; essentially, we are going to hear the same old story again.”
Past milestones
Duvenhage said he expects Ramaphosa to reflect on the successes of the ANC, which includes the passing of transformative legislations such as the BBBEE, the Expropriation Act, and the National Health Insurance (NHI) Act.
“He will talk about strategic planning in terms of the 2026 local government elections. He will also talk about operations in terms of the way forward for the government of national unity (GNU). He will also speak about the relationships within the tripartite alliance,” he said.
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Renewal
Meanwhile, Duvhage said he expects Ramaphosa to emphasise the party’s renewal programme to present an ANC that is returning to its roots.
“At the same time, I think a lot of attention will be focused on what is happening internationally to camouflage the internal challenges of the organisation. I am also expecting a strong stance,” he said.
No longer a liberation party
Duvenhage said that over the years, the ANC has failed to recognise that it is no longer a liberation party but a political party in government. He said the party should acknowledge this and demonstrate its adaptability.
“The issue here is that they need to adapt to the changing environment. But what I am expecting is that they will appeal to the legacy of the past, they will continue with the same rhetoric, but doing that will only produce the same negative outcome in the 2026 elections, because what people want now is a government that can deliver basic services.
“I will not be surprised if they go below 40% in the 2026 elections; they could even go below 30% because they seem to perform worse at local government elections than at national elections,” he said.
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