Is Cyclone Batsirai a threat to SA? Here’s what we know

Cyclone Batsirai – the second named cyclone of 2022 – is raging across the Southern Indian Ocean, bringing with it winds of approximately 140 kilometres per hour. Will it make landfall in South Africa?

Here’s what we know.

Cyclone Batsirai

Mauritius and Reunion Islands

The cyclone is moving south-westwards at approximately 18.5 kilometres per hour.

As reported by Météo-France La Réunion (MFR/RSMC La Réunion), Cyclone Batsirai will pass by the northern regions of Mauritius and the Reunion Island over the coming days.

In addition, rainbands around the periphery of the cyclone will affect the islands as well.

However, the region most affected by the cyclone’s path of destruction will be the eastern coastline of Madagascar.

Landfall in Madagascar

Batsirai Cyclone is expected to make landfall in Madagascar late on Saturday, 5 February 2022.

As per the forecast, the central parts of the coast will be the hardest hit and will bear the brunt of “strong, damaging winds and torrential rainfall”.

Residents are warned of “very rough seas combined with storm surge” which will tend to be “more extreme on the southern side of the tropical storm”.

Unfortunately, the mountains extending along the eastern coastline of Madagascar will only exacerbate the risk of orographically-induced rainfall, as well as flash foods and mudslides.

Is South Africa at risk?

While the cyclone’s path is expected to “be extremely erratic and challenging to predict with any accuracy”, it will, however, weaken once it makes landfall in Madagascar.

At the time of publishing, South Africa is well out of harm’s way, at least during the course of the next five days.

According to the SA Weather Service (Saws), Cyclone Batsirai poses no immediate weather-related threat for South Africa.

Saws said the latest forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts provided a good idea of the most likely path Batsirai would take in the next five days.

That said, the weather service will closely monitor developments pertaining to Cyclone Batsirai, and will issue updates as and when necessary.