Parties, other events increase Covid-19 cases, but another hard lockdown not the answer

Experts say there should be no going back to a hard lockdown, despite drinking, partying and socialising South Africans causing an apparent spike in Covid-19 cases over the past few weeks, with the number of daily new infections reaching 1 866 on Wednesday.

With President Cyril Ramaphosa expected to address the nation again next week on the state of the pandemic, experts have urged the government not to introduce another hard lockdown. Instead, they say, it should rather look to other countries’ management of the pandemic over their warmer seasons, during which movement, borders and policing were at the forefront of efforts to keep infection numbers under control while simultaneously keeping economies open.

Health Minister Dr Zweli Mkhize was at a World Health Organisation briefing yesterday and said the number of new Covid-19 cases had declined since July but for the past six weeks, had been 1 500 to 2 000.

While hospital admissions and deaths had been declining, Mkhize said in the past three weeks, new infection clusters had been detected in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape and that all provinces were on “high alert” for a resurgence.

He said a national plan to mitigate against a potential resurgence, defined as a spike of around 20% in cases, had been developed based on four “key tactical strategies”, including tracking vigilance indicators, identifying and implementing interventions, continuous monitoring and evaluation, as well as reporting and feedback. Provincial plans would incorporate early warning systems.

Mkhize highlighted delays in obtaining an effective vaccine and dwindling resources as a result of the pandemic’s impact on the economy as concerns. He also pointed to “pandemic fatigue” and declining levels of compliance with containment measures, as well as the country’s front-line health workers being exhausted, saying these two factors combined could exacerbate a potential resurgence of the virus.

Epidemiologist Jo Barnes said the recent increase in cases was expected and followed a trend seen in other countries entering the summer months.

“There may be more events and year-end parties as we move into the summer season, so it is understandable that there is going to be considerably more human contact. But I am not convinced that a second hard lockdown is going to be the answer for us,” said Barnes.

“It is true the first one indeed saved lives and I have no doubt that there were gains made where we literally shifted the peak.” However, the government now needed to provide more support and not just dole out punishment to people not wearing masks.

Intensifying safety messages calling on the public to maintain social distancing, avoid large gatherings and wear masks were also important, she said, Plus, “keeping superspreader events down and avoiding meeting in large groups which has contributed to a large number of cases”, she added.

Western Cape premier Alan Winde vehemently opposes another hard lockdown. His party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), has suggested livelihoods will be lost and Winde previously suggested provincial governments should take a localised approach to managing hotspots, rather than shutting down industries across the board.

Economics professor Philippe Burger said the SA economy could not afford another hard lockdown or “anything resembling it”. “We saw … under lockdown Levels 4 and 5, we lost 2.2 million jobs.

“We could expect something very similar if we go on a hard lockdown or anything resembling that again.”

According to Burger, gross domestic product (GDP) could see a improvement in the third quarter, but this would still amount to a net shrinkage of 8% or 9% of the annual GDP. The number of people going to work was dramatically lower than before, though this could be attributed to large-scale job losses and to a lesser extent, professionals working from home.

– simnikiweh@citizen.co.za, additional reporting by Bernadette Wicks

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