‘Shrewdies’ to make July Quartet pay big

There is almost always a surprise package among the top four finishers in the Durban July, making winning Quartet, Trifecta, Swinger and Exacta bets pay handsomely.

On Saturday at Greyville, the July Quartet is predicted to have a pool of R10-million. Three days before the race, the TAB pool was already nearing R1.5-million, so there’s a fair chance it will exceed the target.

In 2024, all four horses at the head of the July pack were priced in double figures by the bookmakers: winner Oriental Charm at 10-1, runner-up Cousin Casey at 25-1, third-placed Royal Victory at 10-1, and fourth-placed Flag Man at 14-1.

The Quartet on that occasion paid a princely R24,359.60.

The year before, third-placed Bless My Stars was a 33-1 shot and fourth Do It Again 16-1; in 2022, winner Sparkling Water and second Jet Dark were both surprisingly good value at 16-1 apiece; and in 2020, fourth-placed Golden Ducat at 33-1 helped swell all dividends.

This week’s 129th running of Africa’s greatest race sees one horse, Eight On Eighteen, dominating the betting, meaning other well-fancied runners are comparative long-shots. Second and third favourites Oriental Charm and Immediate Edge are quoted at 8-1 by Betway. But, of course, they will be included in most Quartet selections and won’t be pushing out the dividend.

Confederate is excellent value

So, in search of the real “roughie” – or “shrewdie” – to make Saturday’s Quartet pay, we must look to deeper reaches of the betting boards.

Confederate at 40-1, Atticus Finch at 28-1 and My Best Shot at 25-1 might be decent calls.

In particular, Fabian Habib-trained Confederate seems excellent value on a line of form through Fire Attack, who he beat in the SA Classic but who has since had a Grade 1 win and has attained a merit rating eight points higher than him. The gelding has never been out of the first two in nine starts and has New Zealand champion jockey Warren Kennedy – on a mission back on home turf – to help him overcome a widish draw.

Every punter is on a budget of some sort, so, to keep the Quartet cost down below R1,000, say, some runners more fancied than the above three will have to be left out.

It’s a hard game.

Suggested Quartet on the Durban July, Race 7, at Greyville on Saturday 5 July:

Floating banker 11; with 1,4,6,9,10,14,16 (R840)