Only one stock is up in the year to date, and not by a massive amount
Picture: iStock
A total of just under R47 billion has been wiped off the combined market value of the country’s five listed apparel retailers since the start of the year.
This figure is masked by the mini rally seen in SA Inc stocks following the results of both the US midterm elections as well as the local government elections locally. Before that, the decline totalled R60 billion.
Only one of the five, Mr Price Group, has eked out a positive return in the 10 months so far this year.
And while all five are off their 52-week lows, the selloffs of Pepkor, The Foschini Group (TFG) and Woolworths have been particularly brutal through the year.
TFG has led the declines, percentage wise, with a 32% drop since the start of 2026. This is not as bad as the 46% it has been at its low for the year.
The stock was boosted by the news last week that Michael Lewis would step down as chair, as well as a slate of new independent non-executive directors who would be appointed to the board.
The actual results have been described as ‘pedestrian’, but there is faint evidence that the turnaround is taking shape.
Its market cap has shed about R9 billion so far this year, with Woolworths and Pepkor both losing around a quarter.
Pepkor’s much larger market cap of nearly R100 billion at the start of the year has seen it lose nearly R25 billion in market value.
Woolworths has experienced a decline in market cap of over R14 billion.
| Closing 31 Dec | Closing 10 Nov | Market cap 31 Dec | Market cap 2 Nov | Change | |
| Mr Price | R174.98 | R190.88 | R45.9bn | R50.1bn | +R4.2bn |
| Pepkor | R26.45 | R19.77 | R97.5bn | R72.9bn | -R24.6bn |
| TFG | R83.95 | R56.93 | R27.8bn | R19bn | -R8.8bn |
| Truworths | R56.93 | R49.48 | R22.8bn | R19.9bn | -R3bn |
| Woolworths | R56 | R41.28 | R54.8bn | R40.4bn | -R14.4bn |
The reasons are complex and somewhat inter-related.
The South African consumer is under extreme stress with record-high fuel prices depressing spend, which is weighing on topline revenues and profits.
Add to that the impact of cheap imports from China via Shein and one can construct a pretty negative outlook.
Of the five retailers, aside from Mr Price, Truworths is doing the ‘best’ of the rest.
In the last year, retail sales were down 0.9% to R21.8 billion with headline earnings per share also declining by a significant margin.
Mr Price
That Mr Price is performing so well from the last year-end is basically down to its acquisition of NKD Group in Germany, which was announced in December.
The market was not at all enamoured with the deal, with it rushing to host a capital markets day in March.
When it announced that deal, it saw its shares sold off sharply. It lost an initial R10 billion in market value.
The group says it is targeting €1 billion in sales by 2030 with a margin of between 8% and 10%.
The Foschini Group
TFG is battling declining volumes. Overall retail turnover was basically flat (-0.4%) in the last six months (R29 billion), but this was dragged back in Australia and London, where sales dropped by 4.4% and 2.2%, respectively.
In Africa, it’s like-for-like sales growth was 2%. The group has said it would sell hundreds of loss-making stores as part of a ‘reset’.
In FY2026, it shut “around” 100 already, with 120 closed in the first half of FY27. There are a further 60-80 stores to close in these six months.
At the end of September, TFG dropped out of the JSE Mid Cap index and therefore entered the JSE Small Cap index.
Woolworths
The travails of Woolworths are more complex as it is being hamstrung by its apparel business while its food business continues to be the star of the show.
In the 52 weeks to 28 June 2026, it saw adjusted Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) for the Food business grow by 3.2%, while that for Fashion, Beauty and Home was 14.1% lower.
The financial services joint venture with Absa grew earnings by 5.6%.
The troubled Australasian business Country Road Group reported an improvement to profit in the last year.
Overall, the group says adjusted Ebitda is up 2.8%.
The serious question is what the group looks like in 12 or 18 months, given the strategic review initiated by new CEO Sam Ngumeni.
This article was republished from Moneyweb. Read the original here.
