These weaker horses tend to not run to their best form all the time and generally don’t have the ability or class to overcome a bad draw or less than optimal ride.
Port Elizabeth Pick 6s have also been paying well. Last weekend’s big payout came about through the meeting being moved to the Polytrack because of rain. A shift in surface will always play havoc with results. It must be said, though, “thumbs up for the Polytrack”. The jockeys who rode at that meeting were very complimentary about the track. Not one horse faltered or stumbled and even after all that rain it felt safe for horse and rider.
Naturally in the next couple of weeks some of the better horses will be coming out but those Pick 6 punters who believe the bet might become easier to catch should beware because some of them might need a run or two to reach peak fitness and that might upset the formbook. I will be trying to get the best-quality rides now so that I am given the ride in the feature races during the season.
There’s a Pick 6 carryover to Turffontein today, so let’s try and win our share. First we’ll look at the non-Pick 6 race.
In the first race I’m riding Captain Coyote. Last time he was quite green and lost ground at the start. I’m hoping he’ll behave this time and if he jumps on terms, he must be a huge runner. The danger should be Fleetfoot Mac. Like Captain Coyote, who opened favourite, he has shortened in the betting. Both have a run under the belt, which is an advantage over this course. Unfortunately for Fleetfoot Mac he’s got a wide draw. There are many first-timers who could upset the applecart but I’m hoping this is one of my better rides for the day, especially because Captain Coyote is probably going to be nominated for the Ready To Run Cup and it will be nice to see him qualify.
Race 2 is very difficult, simply because those horses who have form are drawn quite badly and over this 1000m you need a good draw. None of these horses stand out and you could easily find a horse who’s drawn well make huge improvement. In fact even a first-timer could win. For the BiPot consider, in no particular order, It’s Magic, Fly Phillippa, Maliko Bay and first-timer Seven Sails.
The first leg of the Place Accumulator could be tricky because there’s Masterly, one of the older brigade and a horse who has only had one run so can make huge improvement. He’s taking on three-year-olds Intandokazi and Pay As You Go, who both look talented. For the Place Accumulator Masterly and Pay As You Go should suffice – Intandokazi has the worst of the draw.
In the first leg of the Pick 6 I’m riding Suedette. She’s had one run since breaking her maiden and was soundly beaten, even with the benefit of an apprentice claim. So I think the two who will fight it out are Semra and Red Star. The latter will also be nominated for the Ready To Run Cup. You could possibly banker Semra, who is the best-handicapped horse in the field. She’s proven herself against some quality fields and also has the benefit of Ryan Munger’s 2.5kg apprentice claim.
The Jackpot starts in Race 5. I’m riding Mai Thaiga. He is possibly an improver but with the 4kg turnover in weights in Rocky Stallone’s favour it’ll be difficult for my mount to beat him. In fact there has to be huge value in backing Rocky Stallone, who is my value bet. Mai Thaiga has also failed every time he’s tried this kind of distance. For Pick 6 and Jackpot permutations, there are two horses who have run against stronger company in the past, Brass Verdict and Augustinus, and I’d also include White Tiger.
Race 6 is quite a competitive race because some of these horses have had many chances. I’m riding Night Editor, who on form must have some sort of chance and who must be included in all bets. Unfortunately, I’m not sure whether he’ll see out the distance, so my first choice is Inala. He’s a young horse who has drawn at pole position and on collateral form through Devious Tiger, he is the horse to beat. Others to consider including are Bodybuilder, Moon Lay Hidden, King Frost and Amour De La Bonte.
Race 7 is another competitive field. I’m riding Emperor Augustus. He finished just behind Meissa two starts back and there shouldn’t be much between them again. Vulcan is an unknown over this distance but will be right there if he stays. However, the two horses I’d put in the Place Accumulator are Principled Man and Master Archer. Master Archer has a lot of scope for improvement and carries bottom weight. He could be the one we all have to beat. Include all five horses in Pick 6 and Jackpot permutations.
If you think Emperor Augustus can run well in Race 7, then you’ve got to like Triple Beat in Race 8 because he’s stepping down in class. He is my best bet and my banker. He’s got a fairly good draw, is lightly raced and the fact that he was only beaten three lengths by some top-quality horses last time out leads me to believe he can win in this company.
In the final race I’m riding Gold Cup Girl and she needs to be included in all bets. You could even banker her, at least in the Place Accumulator. She has not got the strongest of form and for that reason I’d include Paris Fashion, Dukes Idol and Night Fall in the Pick 6.