Eskom’s winter outlook predicts that load-shedding is ‘expected to be avoided’ if unplanned maintenance remains below 13 gigawatts (GW).

The power utility announced its winter power system update today, stating that the power system is in a ‘further improved and more reliable position than in recent years’.

“If outages increase to 15GW, load-shedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days at Stage 2 – an improvement over the [previous] winter’s worst-case prediction of Stage 5 load-shedding.”

This improved winter outlook is due to a 3.1GW decrease in unplanned outages, compared with the previous year.

“As a result, the forecast range has been lowered to 13–15GW, down from 14–17GW in winter 2024. Last winter had no load-shedding, with average unplanned outages at 12.3GW – significantly below the winter 2024 base-case projection of 14GW.

“This year’s winter outlook prediction is built on an improvement in operational performance and overall efficiency. Load-shedding was the lowest in Eskom’s last financial year (2025) than in the previous two years.

9.9% to 96%

“In the 2025 financial year, we delivered power 96% of the time… in the previous year, the figure was just 9.9%. Our diesel open-cycle gas turbines were utilised approximately 50% less in the 2025 financial year, compared with the two previous financial years, saving around R16b,” Dan Marokane, the Eskom group chief executive, announced today.

“Against this progress, we have seen some setbacks in operational excellence, as evidenced by the recent load-shedding requirements between January and April. A targeted plan has been put in place to reinforce operational discipline and accelerate recovery initiatives to address the root causes related to the recent load-shedding events,” he said.

Power system recovery

The winter outlook is based on several key performance indicators, namely:

• Unplanned outages have decreased by 3.1GW year-on-year, enhancing available generation capacity. Between May 2023 (18GW) and April 2025 (13.5GW), there was a significant 4.5GW reduction, reflecting improved plant performance. The summer average of 12.5GW in unplanned outages was better than the forecasted base case of 13GW, despite some units being reclassified from planned to unplanned outages due to overruns in scheduled maintenance.

• Planned maintenance for the 2025 financial year reached 12.8%, up from 12% in the previous year. Between September and March, maintenance activity averaged 14.50%, compared with 14.07% during the same period the previous year, and 11.8% in the 2023 financial year – an increase of 2.7% compared with the 2023 financial year. “This forward-looking approach contributed to enhanced winter preparedness and ensures compliance with environmental and regulatory requirements,” Eskom said.

• Plant availability improved to 61% in the 2024/2025 financial year, up from 54.6% the previous year – a 6.5% year-on-year improvement. “Eskom projects a notable increase in the energy availability factor as it completes the outstanding actions in its recovery plan.”

• Diesel consumption dropped by approximately 50%, resulting in cost savings of approximately R16.51b year-on-year – reflecting reduced reliance on emergency generation.

• Sales volumes grew by approximately 3.6% year-on-year, driven by improved generation capacity, higher exports and reduced reliance on diesel.

• Kusile Units 2 and 3 have been successfully reconnected to the main stacks and are operating with the flue gas desulphurisation system (FGD). Unit 1 is undergoing a scheduled outage and is expected to return to service in June, also connected to the main stack. This follows authorisation from the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, which had previously permitted the temporary operation of the three units without the FGD system – under strict environmental conditions – until March 31, following the 2022 structural failure of the west stack.

• A total of 3.470GW wind capacity was made available through curtailment in the Eastern and Western Cape.

• In line with its goal to modernise the power system, Eskom has installed 880 000 smart meters to date. “Among other benefits, this technology supports effective demand control through load limiting and enables eligible customers to return surplus clean energy to the grid, helping to reduce strain on the system during peak times.”

Continued investment in building 2 500MW capacity and securing future energy supply:

• Koeberg Unit 2 successfully returned more than 900MW to service in December last year, following the completion of the long-term operation project.

• Kusile Unit 6 was synchronised to the grid on March 23, contributing 800MW and is scheduled to be in commercial operation by September.

• Medupi Unit 4’s return online is progressing well and is anticipated to return 800MW to service by the end of May.

According to Eskom, in the 2025 financial year, it produced more energy than in the previous two years. “We continue to make bold decisions with the future in mind – to build a stronger, more reliable power system for the country. We have continued to maintain high levels of planned maintenance as part of efforts to improve fleet reliability in preparation for the high winter demand, while also meeting environmental licence conditions and regulatory requirements,” said Bheki Nxumalo, Eskom group executive for generation.

“We have evolved our generation recovery plan to ensure our data-led analysis into the delays in returning units from outages on time, which has caused our fleet to be constrained and not able to accommodate a sudden loss of units, receives intense management focus… to rectify this situation,” he added.

“Eskom is focusing on evolving its business to position it for the energy transition and increasing competition, while ensuring energy security.”

Key initiatives include:

• Implementing around 5.90GW of clean energy projects by 2030

• Legally separating its distribution and generation divisions

• Enhancing distribution and generation of products and service offerings

• Exploring strategic partnerships for funding and execution.

“Additionally, proactive interventions continue to be implemented to improve the governance and control environment to achieve a high-performance ethical culture,” said Eskom.

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